NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection – FINAL – 5:39PM EST

We have come to Selection Sunday, the Final Exam so to speak for the work put in by hundred or so Bracketologists over the course of the season. Below you will find my final bracket, as well as a little analysis of the #1 seeds and bubble picture. I’ll start with the full bracket for easy reference (S-curve adjusted to eliminate restricted matchups to the extent possible, without moving seed lines), and then follow with discussion below.

1	Louisville	Indiana		Gonzaga	Kansas
2	Ohio St.	Georgetown		Miami FL	Duke
3	New Mexico	Florida		Michigan St.	Michigan
4	Wisconsin	Kansas St.		Syracuse	Marquette
5	St. Louis	Pittsburgh		Oklahoma St.	Arizona
6	Nevada Las Vegas	North Carolina		UCLA	Notre Dame
7	Creighton	Virginia Commonwealth		Memphis	North Carolina St.
8	Missouri	Oregon		Colorado St.	Butler
9	Iowa St.	San Diego St.		Minnesota	Illinois
10	California	Colorado		Wichita St.	Cincinnati
11	Villanova	St. Mary’s		Mississippi	Oklahoma
12	Akron	Kentucky/Temple		Belmont	Boise St/Mid Tennessee
13	Bucknell	Valparaiso		Davidson	New Mexico St.
14	Harvard	Montana		Iona	South Dakota St.
15	Northwestern St.	Pacific		Florida Gulf Coast	Albany
16	Southern	James Madison		Long Island	Western Kentucky
16	NC A&T	Liberty
	Next Four	Second Four Out
	Virginia	Baylor
	La Salle	Southern Mississippi
	Iowa	Alabama
	Tennessee	Maryland

1 seeds

For the top line, my top 3 overall seeds are Louisville, Indiana, and Gonzaga. The fourth gets interesting and comes down to Duke, Kansas, and Miami, with Georgetown and Ohio State just on the outside of this discussion. 

Duke has the best profile in terms of wins over top teams and sports the #1 RPI, but it did not win either the ACC regular season or tournament titles. They also may receive consideration for four of their five losses occurring when they lacked the services of Ryan Kelly. However, Miami has the same excuse for its loss to Florida Gulf Coast University, and it’s one of those subjective factors that is almost impossible to judge how the Committee will treat each scenario in a given year.

Kansas and Miami each completed that double feat, sport RPIs in the top 5, and each has their share of wins over top 50 opponents as well. Each also suffered at least one horrible loss, something Duke has avoided. A couple too many in Miami’s case.

In the end it came down to Duke and Kansas in a dead heat per my model (11.19 rating apiece), so I had to make a gut decision. Kansas gets the nod with similar wins (Ohio St and Temple are shared) and the conference champion double dip.

Bubble

In a way, Mississippi winning the SEC title game and shrinking the bubble made the decision making process easier. It took them out of the at-large pool, making the bubble one spot smaller with one less legitimate option. It leaves 14 teams fighting for 6 spots, with the top 3 spots most likely grabbed by Oklahoma, St Mary’s, and Temple.

Baylor and below are likely on the wrong side, leaving the hard decision point at the final three bids among 7 teams: Middle Tennessee, Boise St, Kentucky, UVA, La Salle, Iowa, and Tennessee.

Middle Tennessee and Boise St narrowly get the first two spots, leaving the final decision among teams that had bad losses down the stretch, Kentucky and Virginia. Virginia may have had one too many bad losses and thus misses out, giving the Wildcats a new life in Dayton.

 

IN			OUT
43	St. Mary’s	84.49	49	Virginia	96.06
44	Oklahoma	85.74	51	La Salle	99.03
45	Temple	90.61	52	Iowa	99.28
46	Middle Tennessee	94.58	53	Tennessee	101.16
47	Boise St.	95.19	54	Baylor	109.39
48	Kentucky	95.61	55	Southern Mississippi	112.22
			57	Alabama	113.26
			58	Maryland	117.12

Here’s the full top 100:

1	Louisville	2.34		51	La Salle	99.03
2	Indiana	4.39		52	Iowa	99.66
3	Gonzaga	10.03		53	Tennessee	101.16
4	Kansas	11.19		54	Baylor	109.39
5	Duke	11.19		55	Southern Mississippi	111.84
6	Miami FL	14.12		56	Akron	112.55
7	Ohio St.	14.28		57	Alabama	113.26
8	Georgetown	15.31		58	Maryland	117.12
9	New Mexico	16.64		59	Stanford	119.05
10	Michigan St.	16.72		60	Denver	120.85
11	Florida	21.13		61	Bucknell	127.61
12	Marquette	25.32		62	Valparaiso	128.11
13	Michigan	25.49		63	Providence	128.65
14	Syracuse	33.83		64	Arkansas	130.41
15	Kansas St.	34.30		65	Louisiana Tech	131.66
16	Wisconsin	34.82		66	Northern Iowa	133.76
17	St. Louis	35.28		67	Massachusetts	134.90
18	Oklahoma St.	40.66		68	Davidson	136.86
19	Arizona	41.68		69	Xavier	136.95
20	Pittsburgh	42.79		70	Washington	137.73
21	UCLA	47.20		71	Arizona St.	138.46
22	Notre Dame	55.63		72	Ohio	140.29
23	North Carolina	57.37		73	Air Force	140.86
24	Nevada Las Vegas	58.13		74	Brigham Young	143.91
25	Creighton	59.34		75	Detroit	143.91
26	Virginia Commonwealth	60.23		76	Stephen F. Austin	145.45
27	Memphis	61.34		77	Florida St.	146.48
28	North Carolina St.	64.81		78	New Mexico St.	146.70
29	Butler	65.12		79	Saint Joseph’s	146.99
30	Colorado St.	65.30		80	St. John’s	153.55
31	Oregon	67.63		81	Purdue	155.63
32	Missouri	68.32		82	Louisiana St.	156.16
33	Minnesota	73.63		83	Stony Brook	156.40
34	San Diego St.	75.36		84	South Dakota St.	160.40
35	Iowa St.	75.93		85	Indiana St.	161.12
36	Illinois	79.41		86	Southern California	161.56
37	Cincinnati	79.50		87	Richmond	162.07
38	Colorado	82.82		88	Charlotte	163.86
39	California	82.84		89	Wyoming	163.89
40	Wichita St.	83.05		90	Dayton	164.40
41	Villanova	83.90		91	Texas A&M	165.79
42	Mississippi	83.98		92	Texas El Paso	166.98
43	St. Mary’s	84.11		93	Texas	168.53
44	Oklahoma	85.74		94	North Dakota St.	169.18
45	Temple	90.61		95	Evansville	169.90
46	Middle Tennessee	94.21		96	Santa Clara	171.80
47	Boise St.	95.19		97	Boston College	172.07
48	Kentucky	95.61		98	Weber St.	174.27
49	Virginia	96.06		99	Illinois St.	174.67
50	Belmont	96.14		100	Rutgers	179.26

 

Bracket Update 3/15/13

We’re coming down to the wire with just 3 days of action left, today being the final day of at least 4 games taking place in many of the top conferences. That also means that today is the last day of widespread bubble action.

In yesterday’s bubble action, teams in the tournament field had mixed results. Illinois, Iowa State, and Oregon scored big wins that cemented their inclusion in the field.

Cincinnati, Villanova, Oklahoma, and Colorado lost games to teams safely in the field, limiting their chances to move up the S-curve. All should feel pretty good about their inclusion on Sunday, however. California suffered a bad loss to Utah, and while they should still feel pretty good about their chances, they will now have a lesser feeling of safety than they may have otherwise.

Teams just out of the tournament fared well. Tennessee and Iowa beat up on conference doormats, avoiding bad losses and surviving, giving each a chance to pick up a big quarterfinal win to bolster their chances.

Teams further off the bubble didn’t fare as well. Baylor’s late rally fell just short against Oklahoma State,  Denver and Louisiana Tech each suffered bad losses in the WAC, and Arkansas, Arizona State, and Xavier suffered losses that ended their longshot hopes of moving up the pecking order.

Here is what today has on tap:

ACC – Virginia has a nearly must-win game against NC State in the 4/5 matchup at 2:30, while Maryland clings to its hail mary attempt to make the tournament as it tries to beat Duke for the second time this season at 7.

Big Ten – The best conference in the country has 4 games that will affect the top four lines on tap in the quarterfinals, with a very intriguing Michigan/Wisconsin matchup at 2:30. Meanwhile, Iowa needs a marquee win, and will have the chance to grab it over Michigan State in the Big Ten nightcap.

Big 12 – The semifinals bring us the top 4 teams in the conference, with Kansas facing Iowa State, and Oklahoma State and Kansas State potentially playing off for a 4-seed in the other semifinal.

Big East – Two great semifinals feature three future ACC squads, as Georgetown plays Syracuse and Louisville plays Notre Dame in two games that could affect the 1-line of the s-curve.

SEC – Lots of bubble action is on tap. Kentucky must beat Vanderbilt to avoid a bad loss, while Ole Miss has one more chance to pick up a big win as it faces Missori in the late game. Finally, Tennessee and Alabama, two of the 8 teams closest to the tournament without currently being in, will face off in an elimination game at 3:30.

Pac-12 – Semifinal action pits Arizona and UCLA in one semi, while Oregon plays potential bid stealer Utah in the other semifinal.

A-10 – Quarterfinal action today pairs Butler and La Salle at 2:30, in a game the Explorers suddenly appear to need. The nightcap between bubble team Temple and longshot UMass is also desperately needed by both teams. Temple has a chance without it, while UMass may need to win the whole A-10 tournament (and definitely needs to make at least the finals) to have a shot.

MWC – The top 4 teams are in action in the semis, as New Mexico plays San Diego State and UNLV plays Colorado St

CUSA – Memphis continues their march through the league, while Southern Miss harbors slim hopes as they play UTEP in the semis.

Other semifinals include the WAC, Big Sky, SWAC, MEAC, Big West, Southland, and MAC, in 1-bid leagues.

Here is the bracket headed into today’s games:

1	Indiana	Louisville		Duke	Gonzaga
2	Miami FL	Kansas		Michigan St.	Georgetown
3	Ohio St.	Michigan		New Mexico	Marquette
4	Arizona	Syracuse		Kansas St.	Florida
5	Oklahoma St.	Pittsburgh		Wisconsin	St. Louis
6	Nevada Las Vegas	Creighton		Notre Dame	UCLA
7	North Carolina	Memphis		Colorado St.	Virginia Commonwealth
8	North Carolina St.	Butler		Minnesota	Missouri
9	San Diego St.	Iowa St.		Oregon	Illinois
10	Villanova	Kentucky		St. Mary’s	Cincinnati
11	Wichita St.	California		Colorado	Oklahoma
12	Akron	Belmont		La Salle/Boise St.	Temple/Virginia
13	Bucknell	Valparaiso		Davidson	Stephen F. Austin
14	Iona	Weber St.		South Dakota St.	New Mexico St.
15	Harvard	Florida Gulf Coast		Pacific	Vermont
16	Texas Southern	Long Island		James Madison	Florida International
16	Morgan State	Liberty
	Next Four	Second Four Out
	Middle Tennessee	Baylor
	Mississippi	Southern Mississippi
	Tennessee	Alabama
	Iowa	Stanford

And the bubble picture:

38	St. Mary’s	81.29	49	Middle Tennessee	96.51
39	Kentucky	82.26	50	Mississippi	96.66
40	Villanova	82.66	52	Tennessee	97.46
41	Wichita St.	83.94	53	Iowa	100.80
42	California	85.47	54	Baylor	106.09
43	Colorado	85.58	55	Southern Mississippi	116.07
44	Oklahoma	86.32	56	Alabama	117.24
45	Temple	86.90	57	Akron	119.71
46	Virginia	88.24	58	Stanford	120.39
47	Boise St.	95.65
48	La Salle	96.47

As well as the teams ahead of the bubble and their relative rankings:

1	Indiana	3.90
2	Louisville	5.80
3	Duke	10.82
4	Gonzaga	13.01
5	Georgetown	13.83
6	Michigan St.	16.00
7	Kansas	16.64
8	Miami FL	18.68
9	Ohio St.	18.72
10	Michigan	21.88
11	New Mexico	22.85
12	Marquette	23.06
13	Florida	23.53
14	Kansas St.	35.69
15	Syracuse	36.38
16	Arizona	37.70
17	Oklahoma St.	38.26
18	Pittsburgh	41.59
19	Wisconsin	45.13
20	St. Louis	46.40
21	UCLA	48.74
22	Notre Dame	56.20
23	Creighton	59.03
24	Nevada Las Vegas	62.21
25	North Carolina	62.83
26	Memphis	63.84
27	Colorado St.	63.86
28	Virginia Commonwealth	65.33
29	Missouri	65.87
30	Minnesota	66.64
31	Butler	66.79
32	North Carolina St.	70.01
33	San Diego St.	72.76
34	Iowa St.	76.53
35	Oregon	79.20
36	Illinois	80.81
37	Cincinnati	81.07

 

Best in Class – March 14

Here’s a look at the contenders for the #1 seeds (all rankings taken from my model unless otherwise specificed).

#1 – Indiana (RPI: 5, BPI:3, Sagarin: 3, Kenpom: 2)

Big Wins: #5 Georgetown (neutral), #6 Michigan St. (x2), #10 Michigan (x2), #9 Ohio St (split – away win), #25 UNC (home), #26 Minnesota (split – home), #53 Iowa (x2)

Bad Losses: None

As sole champions of the best league, with 6 wins over the top 10 (including 3 road and one neutral), 2 more over #25/26, Indiana has a 1-seed resume that will draw little argument.

#2 – Louisville (RPI/Kenpom: 3, Sagarin/BPI: 1)

Big Wins: #11 Marquette (home), #16 Pitt (home), #17 Syracuse (split – win away), #24 Notre Dame (split), #27 Memphis (away), #31 Missouri (neutral), #38 Kentucky (home), #40 Villanova (neutral)

Bad Losses: None

Louisville has the best combined computer rankings of anyone, ranking no worse than 3rd, and shared the Big East title. Their 4 top 25 wins and 3 additional top 50 are strong, but not on the level of Indiana or Duke.

#3 – Duke (RPI:1, BPI:2, Sagarin:4, Kenpom:5)

Big Wins: #2 Louisville (neutral), #8 Miami (split), #9 Ohio St (home), #25 North Carolina (x2), #26 Minnesota (neutral), #29 VCU (neutral), #32 NC St (split), #38 Kentucky (neutral), #46 Temple (neutral)

Bad Losses: None

Duke never lost with Ryan Kelly this season, and he’s back. 3 top 10 wins. 4 more against the top 30. And three more against the top 50. This is the best resume when combining computer rankings and wins. Lone blemish is finishing second in the ACC.

#4 – Gonzaga (Kenpom: 4, BPI/Sagarin: 5, RPI: 6, AP/Coaches Poll: #1)

Big Wins: #14 Kansas St (semi-home), #15 Oklahoma St (away), #36 Saint Mary’s (x3), #37 Oklahoma (neutral), #56 Baylor (home)

Bad Losses: None

Gonzaga won the WCC without being challenged, which helps and doesn’t help. From their wins above, they won a de facto Big 12 title as well. While polls mean little to seeding, #1 with only 2 losses has to help their chances. The lack of opportunities to grab a big win in league play will be their biggest hurdle, but they have passed the all important “eye-test” (which isn’t picked up by my model) and appear to be headed for the rarified air of the top line in the West Regional out of the WCC.

#5 – Georgetown (RPI: 10, Sagarin: 11, Kenpom: 13, BPI: 17)

Big Wins: #2 Louisville (home), #11 Marquette (home), #17 Syracuse (x2), #20 UCLA (neutral), #24 Notre Dame (away), #35 Cincy (x2, away/neutral), Connecticut (#39 if eligible, away), #52 Tennessee (neutral)

Bad Losses: #130 South Florida

Georgetown won a share of the Big East with Louisville and holds the #1 seed in the Big East. They suffered an overtime loss to Indiana early, which certainly won’t hurt. 6 top 25 wins, including 2 road and 1 neutral site win looks great as well. And the head-to-head win over Louisville could prove decisive.  The downsides for Georgetown: 1) the loss to USF stands out as the worst loss among this top 5; and 2) Georgetown’s computer numbers are worse across the board, largely due to a weak non-conference schedule that included 3 strong opponents (Indiana, UCLA, and Tennesee) and a bunch of cream puffs. Without winning the Big East tournament, that could prohibit Georgetown from earning a #1 seed.

#6 – Michigan State (Sagarin: 8, RPI/Kenpom: 9, BPI: 10)

Big Wins: #7 Kansas (neutral), #9 Ohio St (split), #10 Michigan (split), , #18 Wisconsin (x2), #26 Minnesota (split), #42 Illinois (home), #48 Boise St (home), #53 Iowa (away)

Bad Losses: None

Michigan St grabbed the 2-seed in the Big Ten on the heels of a 13-5 conference record. 3 wins over the top 10, plus 6 more over teams within 4 spots of the tournament look great as well. The downsides: The computer numbers yell 2-seed rather than 1, and 1 top-50 road win, over Wisconsin, is less than everyone ahead of them except Duke, who also had five neutral site wins among that group.

#7 Kansas (Sagarin: 6, BPI: 7, RPI/Kenpom: 8)

Big Wins: #9 Ohio St (away), #14 Kansas St (x2), #15 Oklahoma St (split – away), #21 St. Louis (home), #40 Iowa St (x2), #42 Colorado (home), #46 Temple (home), #50 Belmont (home)

Horrifying Loss: #217 TCU

Kansas has strong and consistent computer rankings, beat 3 top 15 teams on the road, grabbed 2 more top 25 wins at home, and 5 additional top 50 wins, to total 10, tied for the most of anyone. The one befuddling loss to TCU hurt the computer numbers and raises a few eyebrows, as does the shellacking at Baylor with an outright Big 12 title on the line. While their Big 12 seed wasn’t affected by the Baylor loss, their NCAA seed very well was.

Miami and Michigan are the two other outside contenders for a #1 seed, although neither is likely to land one at this point. I’ll profile them if the domino effect of items takes place that would garner them consideration.

Bracket Update 3/13/13

In Wednesday’s early action, Providence and Stanford let their slim remaining hopes of playing in the Big Dance disappear with losses in the Big East and Pac-12 tournament. Boise St hopes it fairs better tonight in a must-win against MWC rival San Diego State.

Here is a bracket update before this evening’s games, with tomorrow full of meaningful contests, including over half the bubble in action.

1	Indiana	Louisville		Duke	Gonzaga
2	Miami FL	Kansas		Michigan St.	Georgetown
3	Ohio St.	Michigan		Marquette	Florida
4	Pittsburgh	Oklahoma St.		Kansas St.	New Mexico
5	Syracuse	Arizona		Wisconsin	UCLA
6	Notre Dame	Colorado St.		Creighton	St. Louis
7	North Carolina	Minnesota		Memphis	Nevada Las Vegas
8	Butler	North Carolina St.		Missouri	Virginia Commonwealth
9	San Diego St.	Cincinnati		St. Mary’s	California
10	Iowa St.	Oregon		Kentucky	Oklahoma
11	Wichita St.	Colorado		Illinois	Villanova
12	Akron	Belmont		MTSU/Boise St.	Temple/Virginia
13	Bucknell	Valparaiso		Louisiana Tech	Davidson
14	Iona	Weber St.		South Dakota St.	Stephen F. Austin
15	Harvard	Florida Gulf Coast		Pacific	Vermont
16	Long Island	James Madison		Florida International	NC Central
16	Texas Southern	Liberty
	Next Four	Second Four Out		Four More
	Mississippi	Baylor		Alabama
	Tennessee	Denver		Arkansas
	La Salle	Southern Mississippi		Providence
	Iowa	Stanford		Maryland
34	Cincinnati	80.06	49	Mississippi	97.05
35	St. Mary’s	80.26	50	Belmont	97.62
36	California	80.84	51	Tennessee	98.78
37	Oklahoma	82.68	52	La Salle	99.13
38	Kentucky	82.74	53	Iowa	102.58
39	Oregon	82.80	54	Baylor	107.45
40	Iowa St.	83.12	55	Denver	112.51
41	Wichita St.	83.51	56	Southern Mississippi	115.90
42	Colorado	84.33	57	Stanford	116.29
43	Illinois	85.91	58	Alabama	117.68
44	Villanova	86.40	59	Akron	119.90
45	Temple	88.56	60	Louisiana Tech	123.53
46	Virginia	89.19	61	Arkansas	124.03
47	Boise St.	92.48	62	Providence	124.08
48	Middle Tennessee	95.56	63	Bucknell	127.74
			64	Valparaiso	130.03
			65	Maryland	134.39

Bracket Update 3/13/13

The weekend brought us the first 5 bids, plus eliminated two more #1 seeds in ongoing tournaments. It also brought a bit of clarity to the #1 seeds, or at least the first two of them. Indiana and Duke appear poised to grab #1 seeds in the Big Dance, with 8 other teams fighting for the remaining two spots.

The five in the field right now are as follows:

Creighton (#28, projected 7/8 seed), Belmont (#52, projected 12-seed), Harvard (#101, 14/15), Florida Gulf Coast (#119, 15), and Liberty (#276, play-in 16 seed).

Middle Tennessee’s loss in the Sun Belt semis has either knocked the Blue Raiders out of the tournament or shrunk the bubble by 1 team. The team that currently feels the brunt of that loss: Tennessee, who is now the first team out.

1	Indiana	Louisville		Duke	Georgetown
2	Miami FL	Gonzaga		Kansas	Michigan St.
3	Michigan	Ohio St.		Florida	Marquette
4	Syracuse	Oklahoma St.		Kansas St.	New Mexico
5	Pittsburgh	Arizona		Wisconsin	UCLA
6	Colorado St.	North Carolina		Notre Dame	St. Louis
7	Nevada Las Vegas	Minnesota		Memphis	Creighton
8	Butler	North Carolina St.		Missouri	Virginia Commonwealth
9	St. Mary’s	San Diego St.		Oregon	California
10	Wichita St.	Illinois		Cincinnati	Oklahoma
11	Iowa St.	Colorado		Kentucky	Villanova
12	Akron	Belmont		Temple/Virginia	MTSU/Boise St.
13	Bucknell	Valparaiso		Louisiana Tech	Davidson
14	Iona	South Dakota St.		Weber St.	Stephen F. Austin
15	Harvard	Pacific		Florida Gulf Coast	Vermont
16	Mount St. Mary’s	Northeastern		Arkansas St.	NC Central
16	Texas Southern	Liberty
	Next Four	Second Four Out		Four More
	Tennessee	Baylor		Alabama
	Mississippi	Denver		Arkansas
	La Salle	Stanford		Providence
	Iowa	Southern Mississippi		Air Force

Here is the bubble, with teams making the cut on the left, and those falling just short in the absence of an automatic bid (Belmont) on the right. San Diego St through Illinois should feel pretty safe, but a horrid loss coupled with an injury and a shrinking of the bubble could conceivably put them at risk.

34	San Diego St.	79.48	49	Tennessee	98.48
35	Oregon	81.04	50	Mississippi	98.66
36	California	81.93	51	La Salle	99.74
37	Oklahoma	82.35	52	Belmont	102.41
38	Cincinnati	83.61	53	Iowa	104.90
39	Illinois	84.27	54	Baylor	108.93
40	Wichita St.	84.56	55	Denver	114.25
41	Iowa St.	84.59	56	Stanford	116.06
42	Colorado	84.83	57	Southern Mississippi	116.46
43	Kentucky	85.18	58	Alabama	117.18
44	Villanova	86.76	59	Akron	117.85
45	Middle Tennessee	90.14	60	Louisiana Tech	117.87
46	Boise St.	92.52	61	Arkansas	124.18
47	Virginia	92.65	62	Providence	124.69
48	Temple	94.02	63	Bucknell	127.45
			64	Valparaiso	130.63
			65	Air Force	135.04
			66	Northern Iowa	135.37
			67	Xavier	135.77
			68	Maryland	136.26
			69	Washington	139.45
			70	Massachusetts	141.13

Bracket Update 3/10/13

The weekend brought us the first 5 bids, plus eliminated two more #1 seeds in ongoing tournaments. It also brought a bit of clarity to the #1 seeds, or at least the first two of them. Indiana and Duke appear poised to grab #1 seeds in the Big Dance, with 8 other teams fighting for the remaining two spots.

The five in the field right now are as follows:

Creighton (#28, projected 7/8 seed), Belmont (#52, projected 12-seed), Harvard (#101, 14/15), Florida Gulf Coast (#119, 15), and Liberty (#276, play-in 16 seed).

Middle Tennessee’s loss in the Sun Belt semis has either knocked the Blue Raiders out of the tournament or shrunk the bubble by 1 team. The team that currently feels the brunt of that loss: Tennessee, who is now the first team out.

1	Indiana	Louisville		Duke	Georgetown
2	Miami FL	Gonzaga		Kansas	Michigan St.
3	Michigan	Ohio St.		Florida	Marquette
4	Syracuse	Oklahoma St.		Kansas St.	New Mexico
5	Pittsburgh	Arizona		Wisconsin	UCLA
6	Colorado St.	North Carolina		Notre Dame	St. Louis
7	Nevada Las Vegas	Minnesota		Memphis	Creighton
8	Butler	North Carolina St.		Missouri	Virginia Commonwealth
9	St. Mary’s	San Diego St.		Oregon	California
10	Wichita St.	Illinois		Cincinnati	Oklahoma
11	Iowa St.	Colorado		Kentucky	Villanova
12	Akron	Belmont		Temple/Virginia	MTSU/Boise St.
13	Bucknell	Valparaiso		Louisiana Tech	Davidson
14	Iona	South Dakota St.		Weber St.	Stephen F. Austin
15	Harvard	Pacific		Florida Gulf Coast	Vermont
16	Mount St. Mary’s	Northeastern		Arkansas St.	NC Central
16	Texas Southern	Liberty
	Next Four	Second Four Out		Four More
	Tennessee	Baylor		Alabama
	Mississippi	Denver		Arkansas
	La Salle	Stanford		Providence
	Iowa	Southern Mississippi		Air Force

Here is the bubble, with teams making the cut on the left, and those falling just short in the absence of an automatic bid (Belmont) on the right. San Diego St through Illinois should feel pretty safe, but a horrid loss coupled with an injury and a shrinking of the bubble could conceivably put them at risk.

34	San Diego St.	79.48	49	Tennessee	98.48
35	Oregon	81.04	50	Mississippi	98.66
36	California	81.93	51	La Salle	99.74
37	Oklahoma	82.35	52	Belmont	102.41
38	Cincinnati	83.61	53	Iowa	104.90
39	Illinois	84.27	54	Baylor	108.93
40	Wichita St.	84.56	55	Denver	114.25
41	Iowa St.	84.59	56	Stanford	116.06
42	Colorado	84.83	57	Southern Mississippi	116.46
43	Kentucky	85.18	58	Alabama	117.18
44	Villanova	86.76	59	Akron	117.85
45	Middle Tennessee	90.14	60	Louisiana Tech	117.87
46	Boise St.	92.52	61	Arkansas	124.18
47	Virginia	92.65	62	Providence	124.69
48	Temple	94.02	63	Bucknell	127.45
			64	Valparaiso	130.63
			65	Air Force	135.04
			66	Northern Iowa	135.37
			67	Xavier	135.77
			68	Maryland	136.26
			69	Washington	139.45
			70	Massachusetts	141.13

Bracket Update 3/10/13

The weekend brought us the first 5 bids, plus eliminated two more #1 seeds in ongoing tournaments. It also brought a bit of clarity to the #1 seeds, or at least the first two of them. Indiana and Duke appear poised to grab #1 seeds in the Big Dance, with 8 other teams fighting for the remaining two spots.

The five in the field right now are as follows:

Creighton (#28, projected 7/8 seed), Belmont (#52, projected 12-seed), Harvard (#101, 14/15), Florida Gulf Coast (#119, 15), and Liberty (#276, play-in 16 seed).

Middle Tennessee’s loss in the Sun Belt semis has either knocked the Blue Raiders out of the tournament or shrunk the bubble by 1 team. The team that currently feels the brunt of that loss: Tennessee, who is now the first team out.

1	Indiana	Louisville		Duke	Georgetown
2	Miami FL	Gonzaga		Kansas	Michigan St.
3	Michigan	Ohio St.		Florida	Marquette
4	Syracuse	Oklahoma St.		Kansas St.	New Mexico
5	Pittsburgh	Arizona		Wisconsin	UCLA
6	Colorado St.	North Carolina		Notre Dame	St. Louis
7	Nevada Las Vegas	Minnesota		Memphis	Creighton
8	Butler	North Carolina St.		Missouri	Virginia Commonwealth
9	St. Mary’s	San Diego St.		Oregon	California
10	Wichita St.	Illinois		Cincinnati	Oklahoma
11	Iowa St.	Colorado		Kentucky	Villanova
12	Akron	Belmont		Temple/Virginia	MTSU/Boise St.
13	Bucknell	Valparaiso		Louisiana Tech	Davidson
14	Iona	South Dakota St.		Weber St.	Stephen F. Austin
15	Harvard	Pacific		Florida Gulf Coast	Vermont
16	Mount St. Mary’s	Northeastern		Arkansas St.	NC Central
16	Texas Southern	Liberty
	Next Four	Second Four Out		Four More
	Tennessee	Baylor		Alabama
	Mississippi	Denver		Arkansas
	La Salle	Stanford		Providence
	Iowa	Southern Mississippi		Air Force

 

 

Here is the bubble, with teams making the cut on the left, and those falling just short in the absence of an automatic bid (Belmont) on the right. San Diego St through Illinois should feel pretty safe, but a horrid loss coupled with an injury and a shrinking of the bubble could conceivably put them at risk.

34	San Diego St.	79.48	49	Tennessee	98.48
35	Oregon	81.04	50	Mississippi	98.66
36	California	81.93	51	La Salle	99.74
37	Oklahoma	82.35	52	Belmont	102.41
38	Cincinnati	83.61	53	Iowa	104.90
39	Illinois	84.27	54	Baylor	108.93
40	Wichita St.	84.56	55	Denver	114.25
41	Iowa St.	84.59	56	Stanford	116.06
42	Colorado	84.83	57	Southern Mississippi	116.46
43	Kentucky	85.18	58	Alabama	117.18
44	Villanova	86.76	59	Akron	117.85
45	Middle Tennessee	90.14	60	Louisiana Tech	117.87
46	Boise St.	92.52	61	Arkansas	124.18
47	Virginia	92.65	62	Providence	124.69
48	Temple	94.02	63	Bucknell	127.45
			64	Valparaiso	130.63
			65	Air Force	135.04
			66	Northern Iowa	135.37
			67	Xavier	135.77
			68	Maryland	136.26
			69	Washington	139.45
			70	Massachusetts	141.13