A big night of Wednesday games posed a number of chances for teams to screw up their tournament chances, and a few chances to come up with a big win as well. Per usual, bubble teams for the most part did more to sabotage their chances than to grab a needed big win, and the jumbled nature of the current bubble reflects this. Some suspect teams are going to get into the tournament because we have to come up with 37 at-large bids somehow.
Minnesota let a big chance to get back into the picture slip away as they blew a late lead at home against potential #1 seed Michigan State. They’re not going to make the tournament without a miracle.
South Florida let an early 13 point lead evaporate at #2 Syracuse by allowing a 26-0 run spanning the end of the first half and beginning of the second, letting a marquee win that would almost assuredly have put them in the bracket pass them by. They’ll likely need to win 1-2 more against Cincinnati, @Louisville, or West Virginia down the stretch in order to make the tournament.
Equally important, teams such as Notre Dame and Temple secured important wins that should help them avoid the 8/9 matchups, which is crucial if you want to make the second weekend of the tournament.
29 teams are tightly clustered for the final 16 bids (including the Big West, Sun Belt, and CAA automatic bids), with each of them having more work to do in order to make the tournament, but an open door to walk through should they be able to take care of what they’re supposed to. How many teams avoided harmful losses yesterday? Eye on College Basketball on CBS Sports provides a succinct rundown of yesterday’s activity.
Who will step into the bracket with so many bubble teams seemingly struggling to make their case? Here’s how the bracket has shaken out through Wednesday’s action:
| Atlanta | Boston | Phoenix | St Louis | ||
| 1 | Kentucky | Syracuse | Kansas | Michigan St. | |
| 2 | Ohio St. | Duke | North Carolina | Missouri | |
| 3 | Marquette | Baylor | Georgetown | Michigan | |
| 4 | Florida St. | Wisconsin | Wichita St. | Florida | |
| 5 | Indiana | Louisville | Temple | New Mexico | |
| 6 | Murray St. | Vanderbilt | Nevada Las Vegas | Notre Dame | |
| 7 | California | St. Louis | Virginia | Gonzaga | |
| 8 | Memphis | San Diego St. | Kansas St. | Creighton | |
| 9 | St. Mary’s | Seton Hall | Connecticut | Alabama | |
| 10 | Brigham Young | Purdue | Iowa St. | Harvard | |
| 11 | West Virginia | Southern Mississippi | Texas | Long Beach St. | |
| 12 | Miss St./NW | Northwestern | Middle Tennessee | Washington | |
| 13 | USF/Arizona | Middle Tennessee | Drexel | Iona | |
| 14 | Nevada | Akron | Oral Roberts | Belmont | |
| 15 | Davidson | Wagner | Weber St. | Cleveland St. | |
| 16 | Stony Brook | NC Asheville | Bucknell | Texas Arlington | |
| Norfolk St. | Mississippi Valley St. | ||||
| Next Four | Second Four Out | In Trouble | |||
| Xavier | Oregon | South Dakota St. | |||
| Colorado St. | Akron | Illinois | |||
| Virginia Commonwealth | Louisiana St. | Colorado | |||
| North Carolina St. | Marshall | Minnesota |
Here is the ranking scale that got us there with all remaining teams under consideration, with 18 days of games left . Note that Arizona is the last team in and Xavier the first team out.
| 1 | Kentucky | 1.49 | 100.00% |
| 2 | Syracuse | 1.96 | 100.00% |
| 3 | Kansas | 5.23 | 100.00% |
| 4 | Michigan St. | 5.70 | 100.00% |
| 5 | Missouri | 6.92 | 100.00% |
| 6 | North Carolina | 8.45 | 100.00% |
| 7 | Duke | 8.49 | 100.00% |
| 8 | Ohio St. | 9.15 | 100.00% |
| 9 | Marquette | 17.21 | 100.00% |
| 10 | Michigan | 19.74 | 100.00% |
| 11 | Georgetown | 19.95 | 100.00% |
| 12 | Baylor | 20.05 | 100.00% |
| 13 | Florida | 21.97 | 100.00% |
| 14 | Wichita St. | 23.48 | 100.00% |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 23.92 | 100.00% |
| 16 | Florida St. | 28.28 | 100.00% |
| 17 | Louisville | 31.44 | 100.00% |
| 18 | Indiana | 33.64 | 100.00% |
| 19 | Temple | 36.33 | 99.98% |
| 20 | New Mexico | 36.47 | 99.96% |
| 21 | Notre Dame | 36.82 | 99.91% |
| 22 | Nevada Las Vegas | 39.00 | 99.40% |
| 23 | Vanderbilt | 46.82 | 95.98% |
| 24 | Murray St. | 46.92 | 95.66% |
| 25 | California | 48.41 | 94.28% |
| 26 | St. Louis | 48.97 | 93.43% |
| 27 | Virginia | 51.33 | 91.42% |
| 28 | Gonzaga | 52.26 | 90.29% |
| 29 | Creighton | 54.39 | 88.30% |
| 30 | Kansas St. | 55.87 | 86.70% |
| 31 | San Diego St. | 56.17 | 85.95% |
| 32 | Memphis | 58.51 | 83.65% |
| 33 | St. Mary’s | 61.28 | 80.89% |
| 34 | Seton Hall | 65.43 | 76.80% |
| 35 | Connecticut | 65.79 | 75.96% |
| 36 | Alabama | 66.21 | 75.05% |
| 37 | Harvard | 66.55 | 74.22% |
| 38 | Iowa St. | 67.81 | 72.54% |
| 39 | Purdue | 68.97 | 70.94% |
| 40 | Brigham Young | 71.88 | 67.63% |
| 41 | West Virginia | 72.06 | 66.92% |
| 42 | Southern Mississippi | 73.56 | 64.91% |
| 43 | Texas | 76.86 | 61.02% |
| 44 | Long Beach St. | 79.73 | 57.45% |
| 45 | Washington | 79.82 | 56.83% |
| 46 | Middle Tennessee | 82.23 | 53.68% |
| 47 | Miami FL | 82.26 | 53.12% |
| 48 | Northwestern | 82.73 | 52.08% |
| 49 | Cincinnati | 82.84 | 51.42% |
| 50 | Drexel | 84.09 | 49.51% |
| 51 | Mississippi St. | 84.82 | 48.15% |
| 52 | South Florida | 85.02 | 47.40% |
| 53 | Arizona | 87.11 | 44.48% |
| 54 | Xavier | 87.18 | 43.87% |
| 55 | Colorado St. | 88.78 | 41.48% |
| 56 | Virginia Commonwealth | 90.19 | 39.28% |
| 57 | North Carolina St. | 90.57 | 38.30% |
| 58 | Oregon | 91.04 | 37.22% |
| 59 | Belmont | 93.31 | 33.93% |
| 60 | Iona | 93.59 | 33.06% |
| 61 | Oral Roberts | 93.86 | 32.21% |
| 62 | Akron | 94.83 | 30.49% |
| 63 | Saint Joseph’s | 96.04 | 28.46% |
| 64 | Louisiana St. | 96.22 | 27.71% |
| 65 | Marshall | 96.61 | 26.69% |
| 66 | South Dakota St. | 97.05 | 25.60% |
| 67 | Illinois | 97.90 | 24.00% |
| 68 | Colorado | 98.60 | 22.59% |
| 69 | Minnesota | 98.92 | 21.66% |
| 70 | Nevada | 98.95 | 21.10% |
| 71 | New Mexico St. | 102.05 | 16.55% |
| 72 | Central Florida | 103.16 | 14.57% |
| 73 | Dayton | 103.70 | 13.32% |
| 74 | Tennessee | 103.93 | 12.49% |
| 75 | Davidson | 107.93 | 6.58% |
| 76 | Wyoming | 108.58 | 5.17% |
In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” as defined by a better than 98% chance of getting in is between UNLV above. The next cutoff, which denotes which teams should feel comfortable with a greater than 75% chance of receiving a tournament bid occurs between Alabama and Harvard. Of course Harvard should win the Ivy league’s automatic bid as regular season champion and won’t require an at-large bid. “Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams.
| Current | Proj | Lock/Close | Proj. In | Bubble In | Bubble Out | In Contention | |
| BE | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | - | 10 |
| B10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | - | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| B12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | 6 |
| ACC | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| SEC | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| P12 | 3 | 2 | - | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| MWC | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - | 2 | 5 |
| WCC | 3 | 3 | - | 2 | 1 | - | 3 |
| A10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | 5 |
| CUSA | 2 | 2 | - | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| MVC | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | - | 2 |
| SunBelt | 1 | 1 | - | - | 1 | - | 1 |
| Ivy | 1 | 1 | - | - | 1 | - | 1 |
| OVC | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | - | - | 1 |
| BW | 1 | 1 | - | - | 1 | - | 1 |
| CAA | 1 | 1 | - | - | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Summit | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 2 |
| WAC | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 2 |
| MAC | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 |
| MAAC | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 |
| ASun | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 |
| Horizon | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Lost Bids | 2 | - | |||||
| Auto Bids | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | |||
| 68 | 68 | 37 | 14 | 17 | 23 | 91 | |
| Note: Conferences listed above with zero projected bids are included in auto bids. | |||||||
