Updates and final bracket

•March 16, 2014 • Leave a Comment

Two changes from the preliminary bracket this afternoon

Virginia up to a 1 and Michigan falls to 2.  Michigan st up to a 3, Syracuse is a four.

Everything else remains the same as before.

NCAA Tournament Projections 3/16 3:55PM EST

•March 16, 2014 • Leave a Comment

The following are preliminary projections for the final bracket to come out later today. These results assume wins by both Michigan and Florida, in which case I these will become my final projections. Should either of those teams lose, I will post one final bracket later today with additional changes.

   1 Florida Arizona Wichita St. Michigan
   2 Louisville Kansas Villanova Virginia
   3 Wisconsin Duke Iowa St. Syracuse
   4 UCLA Cincinnati Michigan St. Creighton
   5 North Carolina New Mexico San Diego St. Oklahoma
   6 Kentucky Ohio St. Connecticut VCU
   7 Gonzaga Saint Louis Texas Baylor
   8 Stanford Pittsburgh Memphis Oregon
   9 Providence Oklahoma St. Kansas St. Massachusetts
  10 Iowa Tennessee SMU George Washington
  11 Xavier Nebraska Saint Joseph’s Colorado/Arizona St.
  12 Stephen F. Austin North Dakota St. Dayton/BYU Harvard
  13 Manhattan Tulsa New Mexico St. Delaware
  14 Louisiana Lafayette NC Central Mercer Western Michigan
  15 Eastern Kentucky American Milwaukee Weber St.
  16 Coastal Carolina Cal Poly Albany Wofford
  16 Mount St. Mary’s Texas Southern
Next Four Second Four Out Four More
Florida St. St. John’s California
Minnesota Utah Missouri
Green Bay Georgetown Louisiana Tech
Arkansas North Carolina St. West Virginia
     38 SMU 81.30     49 Florida St. 101.92
     39 Tennessee 81.55     50 Minnesota 103.53
     40 Iowa 81.67     51 Green Bay 104.59
     41 Xavier 82.92     52 Arkansas 105.35
     42 Nebraska 84.43     53 St. John’s 105.63
     43 Saint Joseph’s 85.46     54 Utah 109.33
     44 Arizona St. 86.85     55 Georgetown 110.17
     45 Colorado 88.55     56 North Carolina St. 110.74
     46 BYU 91.27     57 California 111.26
     47 Harvard 91.37     58 Missouri 111.58
     48 Dayton 98.88     59 Louisiana Tech 112.39
    60 West Virginia 112.69
    61 Maryland 113.79
    62 Southern Miss 115.14
    63 Clemson 115.67

NCAA Tournament Projections 3/14

•March 14, 2014 • Leave a Comment

 

   1 Florida Arizona Wichita St. Villanova
   2 Syracuse Virginia Michigan Kansas
   3 Duke Wisconsin Creighton Louisville
   4 San Diego St. Michigan St. Iowa St. Cincinnati
   5 North Carolina Oklahoma Ohio St. VCU
   6 Saint Louis Connecticut Gonzaga UCLA
   7 New Mexico Texas Kentucky Oregon
   8 Massachusetts Stanford Memphis Baylor
   9 Pittsburgh Oklahoma St. Kansas St. Iowa
  10 Xavier Tennessee SMU Nebraska
  11 George Washington Colorado Arizona St. BYU/Florida St.
  12 Louisiana Tech North Dakota St. Dayton/Providence BYU
  13 Toledo Manhattan Stephen F. Austin Georgia St.
  14 UC Irvine Mercer Delaware New Mexico St.
  15 NC Central Eastern Kentucky American Milwaukee
  16 Coastal Carolina Weber St. Wofford Stony Brook
  16 Mount St. Mary’s Alabama St.
Next Four Second Four Out Four More
Minnesota St. John’s Missouri
Arkansas California Southern Miss
Saint Joseph’s Utah West Virginia
Green Bay Georgetown Clemson
     38 SMU 82.13     49 Minnesota 100.03
     39 Tennessee 83.01     50 Arkansas 103.75
     40 Xavier 83.24     51 Saint Joseph’s 104.10
     41 George Washington 83.53     52 Green Bay 104.70
     42 Colorado 85.01     53 St. John’s 107.17
     43 Arizona St. 85.29     54 California 108.91
     44 Harvard 92.20     55 Utah 109.62
     45 BYU 93.31     56 Georgetown 109.67
     46 Florida St. 97.56     57 Missouri 110.16
     47 Dayton 97.72     58 Southern Miss 110.64
     48 Providence 97.79     59 West Virginia 112.71
    60 Louisiana Tech 112.81
    61 Clemson 114.33

NCAA Tournament Projections Wednesday March 12

•March 12, 2014 • Leave a Comment

Through two days of mid-major conference tournaments and not much else, the bottom of the bracket is coming into form.

Today, the major conferences kick things off as those playing in the early rounds have one final chance to make the tournament. Thursday is the best bracket busting day of the season, as second rounds and quarterfinals across all the major conferences will pose a number of elimination games to get into the tournament as well as greatly impact the seeding process.

   1 Florida Arizona Wichita St. Villanova
   2 Syracuse Virginia Michigan Kansas
   3 Duke Wisconsin Creighton Louisville
   4 North Carolina Iowa St. Michigan St. Cincinnati
   5 San Diego St. Oklahoma Ohio St. VCU
   6 Connecticut New Mexico Gonzaga Saint Louis
   7 UCLA Texas Kentucky Memphis
   8 Iowa Oklahoma St. Baylor Oregon
   9 Kansas St. SMU Pittsburgh Massachusetts
  10 George Washington Tennessee Nebraska Arizona St.
  11 Stanford BYU Colorado Xavier/Dayton
  12 Louisiana Tech North Dakota St. Arkansas/Minnesota Harvard
  13 Toledo Manhattan Stephen F. Austin Georgia St.
  14 Boston University Mercer Delaware New Mexico St.
  15 UC Irvine NC Central Eastern Kentucky Milwaukee
  16 Coastal Carolina Weber St. Wofford Stony Brook
  16 Mount St. Mary’s Alabama St.
Next Four Second Four Out Four More
Florida St. St. John’s Utah
Providence Green Bay Missouri
Saint Joseph’s California Maryland
Georgetown West Virginia Southern Miss
     38 Nebraska 81.82     49 Florida St. 102.14
     39 Tennessee 82.80     50 Providence 102.99
     40 George Washington 83.06     51 Saint Joseph’s 103.25
     41 Stanford 83.97     52 Georgetown 103.43
     42 BYU 85.90     53 St. John’s 104.74
     43 Colorado 86.54     54 Green Bay 105.75
     44 Xavier 87.11     55 California 106.28
     45 Harvard 92.85     56 West Virginia 106.75
     46 Dayton 97.83     57 Utah 108.36
     47 Arkansas 97.90     58 Missouri 109.96
     48 Minnesota 102.03     59 Maryland 113.92
    60 Southern Miss 114.12
    61 Louisiana Tech 115.66
    62 Clemson 116.06
    63 North Dakota St. 117.06
    64 Illinois 123.87
    65 Georgia 125.89
    66 Indiana 126.10
    67 North Carolina St. 126.55
    68 Marquette 129.82

NCAA Tournament Projections 3/10

•March 10, 2014 • Leave a Comment
   1 Florida Arizona Wichita St. Villanova
   2 Syracuse Virginia Michigan Kansas
   3 Duke Wisconsin Creighton Louisville
   4 North Carolina Iowa St. Michigan St. Cincinnati
   5 Oklahoma San Diego St. Ohio St. VCU
   6 Connecticut Gonzaga New Mexico Saint Louis
   7 UCLA Texas Kentucky Memphis
   8 Iowa Baylor Oklahoma St. Oregon
   9 Kansas St. SMU Pittsburgh Massachusetts
  10 George Washington Tennessee Nebraska Arizona St.
  11 Stanford Colorado BYU Harvard
  12 Louisiana Tech North Dakota St. Arkansas/Minnesota Xavier/Dayton
  13 Toledo Iona Stephen F. Austin Georgia St.
  14 Boston University Mercer Delaware New Mexico St.
  15 UC Irvine NC Central Eastern Kentucky Wright St.
  16 Wofford Weber St. Stony Brook Robert Morris
  16 Coastal Carolina Alabama St.
Next Four Second Four Out Four More
Georgetown St. John’s Utah
Saint Joseph’s California Missouri
Florida St. Green Bay Maryland
Providence West Virginia Southern Miss
     38 Nebraska 82.37     49 Georgetown 102.43
     39 Tennessee 83.14     50 Saint Joseph’s 102.79
     40 George Washington 83.16     51 Florida St. 102.82
     41 Stanford 83.63     52 Providence 103.32
     42 Colorado 86.15     53 St. John’s 104.40
     43 BYU 86.46     54 California 105.97
     44 Xavier 87.11     55 Green Bay 106.03
     45 Harvard 92.80     56 West Virginia 107.09
     46 Dayton 97.83     57 Utah 108.70
     47 Arkansas 98.58     58 Missouri 109.64
     48 Minnesota 102.03     59 Maryland 113.24
    60 Southern Miss 113.81
    61 Louisiana Tech 115.32
    62 Clemson 116.06
    63 North Dakota St. 121.18
    64 Illinois 123.45
    65 Georgia 125.01
    66 Indiana 125.92
    67 North Carolina St. 126.79
    68 LSU 129.09
    69 Marquette 130.05

Full Season Effects of Realignment and 3/9 Projections

•March 9, 2014 • Leave a Comment

This season brought about one of the largest landscape changes the NCAA has seen. The ACC moved from 12 to 15 teams, the Big East split in two and the new AAC became essentially the old Conference USA.

In my estimation, there are now 6 major conferences: Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, SEC, Pac 12, and Big East. There are another 3 high level non-majors: AAC, A-10, and MWC. And following these three are the MVC and WCC.

The flow through effects have changed everything from the top line through the bubble. First, as the top conferences get larger, the conferences below them have become diluted as top programs such as Creighton, Butler, VCU, and Xavier move up.

On the top line, Wichita State is causing a huge debate as to whether they are worthy of a number 1 seed. Their 33-0 record coming off a Final Four is extremely impressive and would usually be more than enough to land a #1 coming from the MVC. However, as much is made about their weak schedule, one thing overlooked is the effect of Creighton’s absence after leaving for the Big East. Having one other highly ranked tournament level team on their schedule would have drastically changed the perception of Gregg Marshall’s fantastic squad. And possibly have given them a loss in Omaha, though no one can prove that either way.

At the “mid-major” level, the CAA, Horizon, Conference USA, and WAC, four leagues that have shown some ability to land multiple bids in the past, have been ransacked as their teams have moved to the A-10, MWC, and Big East in particular. While Green Bay has made a case for an at-large bid this season on the strength of their win over Virginia, none of these leagues now looks more likely than not to land an at-large bid in the next 4-5 years. Even the A-10, which looks like a 5/6 bid league this year, just lost Xavier, Butler, and Temple from a season ago.

And further down, leagues such as the Southern conference have seen perennial top contenders such as Charleston (and next year Davidson) move up the food chain to fill voids left in the CAA and other leagues. The result is that these smaller leagues are relatively weaker and less likely to pull an upset come March.

One last change, there are now 32 automatic bids rather than 31. However, as at-large bids are more and more concentrated in a few conferences, and the new conference is the AAC (which should have 5 at-large worthy teams anyways) this should have almost no effect on teams around the bubble.

Here is the bracket updated for yesterday’s 110 games, with Eastern Kentucky (OVC winner) and Wright State (Horizon finalist) now included in the field.

   1 Florida Arizona Kansas Wichita St.
   2 Wisconsin Michigan Virginia Villanova
   3 Creighton Duke Syracuse Louisville
   4 North Carolina Iowa St. Michigan St. Cincinnati
   5 San Diego St. Oklahoma VCU Gonzaga
   6 Texas Connecticut UCLA New Mexico
   7 Kentucky Ohio St. Memphis Oregon
   8 Baylor Oklahoma St. Massachusetts Saint Louis
   9 Kansas St. Iowa SMU Arizona St.
  10 Stanford Tennessee George Washington Pittsburgh
  11 Xavier Colorado BYU St Joseph’s/Florida St.
  12 North Dakota St. Louisiana Tech Harvard Dayton/Arkansas
  13 Toledo Stephen F. Austin Iona Georgia St.
  14 Mercer Vermont Delaware New Mexico St.
  15 Boston University UC Irvine NC Central Davidson
  16 Weber St. Wright St. Robert Morris Eastern Kentucky
  16 Winthrop Alabama St.
Next Four Second Four Out Four More
Providence Minnesota Missouri
Georgetown St. John’s West Virginia
Nebraska Utah Southern Miss
Green Bay California Clemson

NCAA Tournament Projections 3.8.14

•March 8, 2014 • Leave a Comment

I’ve been too busy over the last year to post, but have been learning new skills in the interim. This has meant no updates here, but an improved, more nuanced model used to derive my projections. I will be posting over the following week leading up to Selection Sunday and will provide commentary on a wildly different college basketball landscape than prior years during this week. However, in the interest of getting an initial bracket posted in decent time, I’m going to post the current bracket and rankings without further commentary.

   1 Arizona Florida Kansas Wichita St.
   2 Wisconsin Villanova Michigan Virginia
   3 Creighton Duke Syracuse Cincinnati
   4 Iowa St. North Carolina Michigan St. Louisville
   5 Oklahoma UCLA San Diego St. Texas
   6 Gonzaga Connecticut New Mexico VCU
   7 Kentucky Ohio St. Iowa Kansas St.
   8 SMU Massachusetts Memphis Saint Louis
   9 Arizona St. Oklahoma St. Oregon Xavier
  10 Arkansas Tennessee George Washington Baylor
  11 Colorado Stanford BYU St Joseph’s/Pitt
  12 Louisiana Tech Green Bay Harvard Providence/Florida St.
  13 North Dakota St. Stephen F. Austin Toledo Iona
  14 Delaware Vermont New Mexico St. Georgia St.
  15 Belmont Mercer Boston University UC Irvine
  16 Weber St. Robert Morris Davidson NC Central
  16 Southern Winthrop
Next Four Second Four Out Four More
Nebraska Clemson California
Dayton Utah Southern Miss
Georgetown Missouri Marquette
Minnesota St. John’s West Virginia
                1 Florida 0.00     50 Nebraska 101.24
                2 Arizona 0.00   51 Dayton 102.18
                3 Kansas 4.01   52 Georgetown 102.93
                4 Wichita St. 9.95   53 Minnesota 103.95
                5 Virginia 10.32   54 Utah 107.76
                6 Michigan 12.79   55 Clemson 107.76
                7 Villanova 13.41   56 St. John’s 108.22
                8 Wisconsin 15.41   57 Missouri 108.71
                9 Creighton 20.51   58 California 110.25
              10 Duke 22.10   59 Southern Miss 114.02
              11 Syracuse 24.91   60 Marquette 116.27
              12 Cincinnati 31.19   61 Louisiana Tech 117.37
              13 Louisville 31.92   62 West Virginia 120.86
              14 Michigan St. 37.49   63 North Dakota St. 122.24
              15 North Carolina 38.32   64 LSU 123.30
              16 Iowa St. 39.54   65 North Carolina St. 126.44
              17 Oklahoma 44.18   66 Indiana 128.15
              18 UCLA 46.77   67 Maryland 129.01
              19 San Diego St. 48.15   68 Saint Mary’s 136.13
              20 Texas 54.09   69 San Francisco 136.91
              21 VCU 54.81   70 Stephen F. Austin 136.97
              22 New Mexico 58.06   71 Toledo 137.65
              23 Gonzaga 58.46   72 Georgia 139.11
              24 Connecticut 58.51   73 Iona 140.48
              25 Kentucky 60.54   74 Illinois 141.24
              26 Ohio St. 61.16   75 Boise St. 141.30
              27 Iowa 64.22   76 Georgia St. 143.91
              28 Kansas St. 67.74   77 Middle Tennessee 144.14
              29 Memphis 69.88   78 Washington 147.86
              30 Saint Louis 70.19   79 Richmond 150.63
              31 Massachusetts 71.26   80 Penn St. 152.51
              32 SMU 72.64
              33 Arizona St. 73.53
              34 Oklahoma St. 77.62
              35 Oregon 82.00
              36 Xavier 82.55
              37 George Washington 84.29
              38 Baylor 84.38
              39 Tennessee 86.19
              40 Colorado 86.56
              41 Arkansas 86.64
              42 Stanford 87.61
              43 BYU 87.66
              44 Saint Joseph’s 90.84
              45 Pittsburgh 91.74
              46 Florida St. 95.30
              47 Harvard 99.11
              48 Green Bay 99.69
              49 Providence 100.09
 
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