NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection – FINAL – 5:39PM EST

We have come to Selection Sunday, the Final Exam so to speak for the work put in by hundred or so Bracketologists over the course of the season. Below you will find my final bracket, as well as a little analysis of the #1 seeds and bubble picture. I’ll start with the full bracket for easy reference (S-curve adjusted to eliminate restricted matchups to the extent possible, without moving seed lines), and then follow with discussion below.

   1 Louisville  Indiana    Gonzaga  Kansas 
   2 Ohio St.  Georgetown    Miami FL  Duke 
   3 New Mexico  Florida    Michigan St.  Michigan 
   4 Wisconsin  Kansas St.    Syracuse  Marquette 
   5 St. Louis  Pittsburgh    Oklahoma St.  Arizona 
   6 Nevada Las Vegas  North Carolina    UCLA  Notre Dame 
   7 Creighton  Virginia Commonwealth  Memphis  North Carolina St. 
   8 Missouri  Oregon    Colorado St.  Butler 
   9 Iowa St.  San Diego St.    Minnesota Illinois 
  10 California  Colorado    Wichita St.  Cincinnati 
  11 Villanova  St. Mary’s    Mississippi  Oklahoma 
  12 Akron  Kentucky/Temple    Belmont  Boise St/Mid Tennessee 
  13 Bucknell  Valparaiso    Davidson  New Mexico St. 
  14 Harvard  Montana    Iona  South Dakota St. 
  15 Northwestern St.  Pacific    Florida Gulf Coast  Albany 
  16 Southern  James Madison    Long Island  Western Kentucky 
  16 NC A&T  Liberty       
           
  Next Four  Second Four Out       
  Virginia  Baylor       
  La Salle  Southern Mississippi       
  Iowa  Alabama       
  Tennessee  Maryland       

1 seeds

For the top line, my top 3 overall seeds are Louisville, Indiana, and Gonzaga. The fourth gets interesting and comes down to Duke, Kansas, and Miami, with Georgetown and Ohio State just on the outside of this discussion. 

Duke has the best profile in terms of wins over top teams and sports the #1 RPI, but it did not win either the ACC regular season or tournament titles. They also may receive consideration for four of their five losses occurring when they lacked the services of Ryan Kelly. However, Miami has the same excuse for its loss to Florida Gulf Coast University, and it’s one of those subjective factors that is almost impossible to judge how the Committee will treat each scenario in a given year.

Kansas and Miami each completed that double feat, sport RPIs in the top 5, and each has their share of wins over top 50 opponents as well. Each also suffered at least one horrible loss, something Duke has avoided. A couple too many in Miami’s case.

In the end it came down to Duke and Kansas in a dead heat per my model (11.19 rating apiece), so I had to make a gut decision. Kansas gets the nod with similar wins (Ohio St and Temple are shared) and the conference champion double dip.

Bubble

In a way, Mississippi winning the SEC title game and shrinking the bubble made the decision making process easier. It took them out of the at-large pool, making the bubble one spot smaller with one less legitimate option. It leaves 14 teams fighting for 6 spots, with the top 3 spots most likely grabbed by Oklahoma, St Mary’s, and Temple.

Baylor and below are likely on the wrong side, leaving the hard decision point at the final three bids among 7 teams: Middle Tennessee, Boise St, Kentucky, UVA, La Salle, Iowa, and Tennessee.

Middle Tennessee and Boise St narrowly get the first two spots, leaving the final decision among teams that had bad losses down the stretch, Kentucky and Virginia. Virginia may have had one too many bad losses and thus misses out, giving the Wildcats a new life in Dayton.

 

IN  OUT 
      43 St. Mary’s  84.49               49 Virginia  96.06
      44 Oklahoma  85.74               51 La Salle  99.03
      45 Temple  90.61               52 Iowa  99.28
      46 Middle Tennessee  94.58               53 Tennessee  101.16
      47 Boise St.  95.19               54 Baylor  109.39
      48 Kentucky  95.61               55 Southern Mississippi  112.22
                    57 Alabama  113.26
                    58 Maryland  117.12

Here’s the full top 100:

                1 Louisville  2.34     51 La Salle  99.03
                2 Indiana  4.39     52 Iowa  99.66
                3 Gonzaga  10.03     53 Tennessee  101.16
                4 Kansas  11.19     54 Baylor  109.39
                5 Duke  11.19     55 Southern Mississippi  111.84
                6 Miami FL  14.12     56 Akron  112.55
                7 Ohio St.  14.28     57 Alabama  113.26
                8 Georgetown  15.31     58 Maryland  117.12
                9 New Mexico  16.64     59 Stanford  119.05
              10 Michigan St.  16.72     60 Denver  120.85
              11 Florida  21.13     61 Bucknell  127.61
              12 Marquette  25.32     62 Valparaiso  128.11
              13 Michigan  25.49     63 Providence  128.65
              14 Syracuse  33.83     64 Arkansas  130.41
              15 Kansas St.  34.30     65 Louisiana Tech  131.66
              16 Wisconsin  34.82     66 Northern Iowa  133.76
              17 St. Louis  35.28     67 Massachusetts  134.90
              18 Oklahoma St.  40.66     68 Davidson  136.86
              19 Arizona  41.68     69 Xavier  136.95
              20 Pittsburgh  42.79     70 Washington  137.73
              21 UCLA  47.20     71 Arizona St.  138.46
              22 Notre Dame  55.63     72 Ohio  140.29
              23 North Carolina  57.37     73 Air Force  140.86
              24 Nevada Las Vegas  58.13     74 Brigham Young  143.91
              25 Creighton  59.34     75 Detroit  143.91
              26 Virginia Commonwealth  60.23     76 Stephen F. Austin  145.45
              27 Memphis  61.34     77 Florida St.  146.48
              28 North Carolina St.  64.81     78 New Mexico St.  146.70
              29 Butler  65.12     79 Saint Joseph’s  146.99
              30 Colorado St.  65.30     80 St. John’s  153.55
              31 Oregon  67.63     81 Purdue  155.63
              32 Missouri  68.32     82 Louisiana St.  156.16
              33 Minnesota  73.63     83 Stony Brook  156.40
              34 San Diego St.  75.36     84 South Dakota St.  160.40
              35 Iowa St.  75.93     85 Indiana St.  161.12
              36 Illinois  79.41     86 Southern California  161.56
              37 Cincinnati  79.50     87 Richmond  162.07
              38 Colorado  82.82     88 Charlotte  163.86
              39 California  82.84     89 Wyoming  163.89
              40 Wichita St.  83.05     90 Dayton  164.40
              41 Villanova  83.90     91 Texas A&M  165.79
              42 Mississippi  83.98     92 Texas El Paso  166.98
              43 St. Mary’s  84.11     93 Texas  168.53
              44 Oklahoma  85.74     94 North Dakota St.  169.18
              45 Temple  90.61     95 Evansville  169.90
              46 Middle Tennessee  94.21     96 Santa Clara  171.80
              47 Boise St.  95.19     97 Boston College  172.07
              48 Kentucky  95.61     98 Weber St.  174.27
              49 Virginia  96.06     99 Illinois St.  174.67
              50 Belmont  96.14    100 Rutgers  179.26

 

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~ by gremazares on March 17, 2013.

One Response to “NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection – FINAL – 5:39PM EST”

  1. Are you making any quant predictions for the tournament itself?

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