March 11, Late Evening Update

Great weekend for the bubble teams, with almost zero stolen bids shrinking the bubble. On behalf of bubble teams everywhere, many thanks to Middle Tennessee, Nevada, the top tier of the AAC for making their finals, the top of all the major conferences for snuffing out teams like TCU and Alabama by the semis at the latest. Even the A-10, a perennial bid thief, behaved versus its own history and looks poised to get either 2 or 3 teams in depending on tomorrow’s VCU/URI final.

The top lines got easier with Duke winning the ACC, and the real trouble picking where teams get slotted starts around #12, the final 3-seed. I’ve got 6 teams stacked right on top of each other for spots 12-17, with Florida State just getting the nod over Iowa St/WVU and Butler moving to the back of that group and the top 5 seed for now. I’ll spend a little more time on that tomorrow.

The middle tier has a ton of intrigue as well. There are a handful of teams that could range from a 6 to a 12 depending on what the committee prioritizes. Wichita St and St Mary’s are computer rankings darlings with sparse big wins (though plenty of blowout wins), while teams like Vanderbilt have a great set of overall wins but also test the committee’s mettle by positioning themselves as the first ever 15-loss at large team. Within this tier it becomes a solve for who you want to win a comparison and I can almost without fail put together a “blind resume” comparison that solves for that answer. I’ll make this my reminder to ignore blind resumes posted with selective data and without context in the future.

Ok, no more words: with about 18 hours to go, here’s a good look at where we stand.

   1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga North Carolina
   2 Arizona Duke Oregon Kentucky
   3 UCLA Louisville Baylor Florida St.
   4 Florida Purdue West Virginia Iowa St.
   5 Butler Virginia Notre Dame Cincinnati
   6 Minnesota Creighton SMU Wisconsin
   7 Michigan Maryland Oklahoma St. Saint Mary’s
   8 Virginia Tech Dayton Wichita St. Miami FL
   9 Vanderbilt Seton Hall Arkansas Marquette
  10 Michigan St. Wake Forest South Carolina Northwestern
  11 Kansas St. Xavier/Providence VCU Middle Tennessee
  12 Vermont Nevada UNC Wilmington URI/USC
  13 Princeton East Tennessee St. Bucknell New Mexico St.
  14 Northern Kentucky Iona Florida Gulf Coast Winthrop
  15 UC Irvine Texas Southern Kent St. Troy
  16 Mount St. Mary’s South Dakota St. Jacksonville St. North Dakota
  16 New Orleans NC Central
Last Four In First Four Out Second Four Out Four More
VCU Syracuse Iowa Princeton
Providence Illinois St. Indiana Alabama
Rhode Island TCU Houston Georgia
USC Clemson California Utah
   33 Vanderbilt 84.29     48 Syracuse 119.31
   34 Seton Hall 85.22     49 Illinois St. 121.67
   35 Arkansas 90.35     50 TCU 126.62
   36 Marquette 93.37     51 Nevada 126.81
   37 Northwestern 94.74     52 UNC Wilmington 132.18
   38 South Carolina 95.03     53 Clemson 133.03
   39 Wake Forest 98.59     54 Iowa 133.09
   40 Michigan St. 100.60     55 Indiana 133.32
   41 Kansas St. 100.69    56 Houston 133.63
   42 Xavier 100.83    57 California 133.67
   43 VCU 104.59    58 Princeton 136.61
   44 Providence 108.17     59 Illinois 136.62
   45 Middle Tennessee 111.50    60 Alabama 137.24
   46 Rhode Island 117.17     61 Georgia 137.44
   47 USC 118.02

 

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~ by gremazares on March 11, 2017.

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