NCAA Tournament Predictions
This page will directly track my NCAA tournament field projections. My field is determined by an entirely formulaic process via a model I designed on Excel. This formula takes into account different team efficiency rankings via published computer models (i.e. Kenpom and Sagarin), the AP and Coaches polls, RPI rankings, conference records, conference strength factors, and pecking order within a conference. While I’m not 100% comfortable with the results (i.e. there are always 1 or 2 outliers that it’s tough to explain away), I’ve tweaked and back tested the model to the point where I’m comfortable publishing the results and predicting the field based on the use of my model. I did so last year and finished with a better than average bracket prediction, including besting ESPN’s famed bracketologist Joe Lunardi. I’ve made a couple of tweaks since last year and feel very good about my model currently.
You can track how I do against the world’s other bracketologists on The Bracket Matrix. com, and post any comments or concerns on my comments page.