NCAA Tournament Projections 3.8.14

•March 8, 2014 • Leave a Comment

I’ve been too busy over the last year to post, but have been learning new skills in the interim. This has meant no updates here, but an improved, more nuanced model used to derive my projections. I will be posting over the following week leading up to Selection Sunday and will provide commentary on a wildly different college basketball landscape than prior years during this week. However, in the interest of getting an initial bracket posted in decent time, I’m going to post the current bracket and rankings without further commentary.

   1 Arizona Florida Kansas Wichita St.
   2 Wisconsin Villanova Michigan Virginia
   3 Creighton Duke Syracuse Cincinnati
   4 Iowa St. North Carolina Michigan St. Louisville
   5 Oklahoma UCLA San Diego St. Texas
   6 Gonzaga Connecticut New Mexico VCU
   7 Kentucky Ohio St. Iowa Kansas St.
   8 SMU Massachusetts Memphis Saint Louis
   9 Arizona St. Oklahoma St. Oregon Xavier
  10 Arkansas Tennessee George Washington Baylor
  11 Colorado Stanford BYU St Joseph’s/Pitt
  12 Louisiana Tech Green Bay Harvard Providence/Florida St.
  13 North Dakota St. Stephen F. Austin Toledo Iona
  14 Delaware Vermont New Mexico St. Georgia St.
  15 Belmont Mercer Boston University UC Irvine
  16 Weber St. Robert Morris Davidson NC Central
  16 Southern Winthrop
Next Four Second Four Out Four More
Nebraska Clemson California
Dayton Utah Southern Miss
Georgetown Missouri Marquette
Minnesota St. John’s West Virginia
                1 Florida 0.00     50 Nebraska 101.24
                2 Arizona 0.00   51 Dayton 102.18
                3 Kansas 4.01   52 Georgetown 102.93
                4 Wichita St. 9.95   53 Minnesota 103.95
                5 Virginia 10.32   54 Utah 107.76
                6 Michigan 12.79   55 Clemson 107.76
                7 Villanova 13.41   56 St. John’s 108.22
                8 Wisconsin 15.41   57 Missouri 108.71
                9 Creighton 20.51   58 California 110.25
              10 Duke 22.10   59 Southern Miss 114.02
              11 Syracuse 24.91   60 Marquette 116.27
              12 Cincinnati 31.19   61 Louisiana Tech 117.37
              13 Louisville 31.92   62 West Virginia 120.86
              14 Michigan St. 37.49   63 North Dakota St. 122.24
              15 North Carolina 38.32   64 LSU 123.30
              16 Iowa St. 39.54   65 North Carolina St. 126.44
              17 Oklahoma 44.18   66 Indiana 128.15
              18 UCLA 46.77   67 Maryland 129.01
              19 San Diego St. 48.15   68 Saint Mary’s 136.13
              20 Texas 54.09   69 San Francisco 136.91
              21 VCU 54.81   70 Stephen F. Austin 136.97
              22 New Mexico 58.06   71 Toledo 137.65
              23 Gonzaga 58.46   72 Georgia 139.11
              24 Connecticut 58.51   73 Iona 140.48
              25 Kentucky 60.54   74 Illinois 141.24
              26 Ohio St. 61.16   75 Boise St. 141.30
              27 Iowa 64.22   76 Georgia St. 143.91
              28 Kansas St. 67.74   77 Middle Tennessee 144.14
              29 Memphis 69.88   78 Washington 147.86
              30 Saint Louis 70.19   79 Richmond 150.63
              31 Massachusetts 71.26   80 Penn St. 152.51
              32 SMU 72.64
              33 Arizona St. 73.53
              34 Oklahoma St. 77.62
              35 Oregon 82.00
              36 Xavier 82.55
              37 George Washington 84.29
              38 Baylor 84.38
              39 Tennessee 86.19
              40 Colorado 86.56
              41 Arkansas 86.64
              42 Stanford 87.61
              43 BYU 87.66
              44 Saint Joseph’s 90.84
              45 Pittsburgh 91.74
              46 Florida St. 95.30
              47 Harvard 99.11
              48 Green Bay 99.69
              49 Providence 100.09
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NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection – FINAL – 5:39PM EST

•March 17, 2013 • 1 Comment

We have come to Selection Sunday, the Final Exam so to speak for the work put in by hundred or so Bracketologists over the course of the season. Below you will find my final bracket, as well as a little analysis of the #1 seeds and bubble picture. I’ll start with the full bracket for easy reference (S-curve adjusted to eliminate restricted matchups to the extent possible, without moving seed lines), and then follow with discussion below.

   1 Louisville  Indiana    Gonzaga  Kansas 
   2 Ohio St.  Georgetown    Miami FL  Duke 
   3 New Mexico  Florida    Michigan St.  Michigan 
   4 Wisconsin  Kansas St.    Syracuse  Marquette 
   5 St. Louis  Pittsburgh    Oklahoma St.  Arizona 
   6 Nevada Las Vegas  North Carolina    UCLA  Notre Dame 
   7 Creighton  Virginia Commonwealth  Memphis  North Carolina St. 
   8 Missouri  Oregon    Colorado St.  Butler 
   9 Iowa St.  San Diego St.    Minnesota Illinois 
  10 California  Colorado    Wichita St.  Cincinnati 
  11 Villanova  St. Mary’s    Mississippi  Oklahoma 
  12 Akron  Kentucky/Temple    Belmont  Boise St/Mid Tennessee 
  13 Bucknell  Valparaiso    Davidson  New Mexico St. 
  14 Harvard  Montana    Iona  South Dakota St. 
  15 Northwestern St.  Pacific    Florida Gulf Coast  Albany 
  16 Southern  James Madison    Long Island  Western Kentucky 
  16 NC A&T  Liberty       
           
  Next Four  Second Four Out       
  Virginia  Baylor       
  La Salle  Southern Mississippi       
  Iowa  Alabama       
  Tennessee  Maryland       

1 seeds

For the top line, my top 3 overall seeds are Louisville, Indiana, and Gonzaga. The fourth gets interesting and comes down to Duke, Kansas, and Miami, with Georgetown and Ohio State just on the outside of this discussion. 

Duke has the best profile in terms of wins over top teams and sports the #1 RPI, but it did not win either the ACC regular season or tournament titles. They also may receive consideration for four of their five losses occurring when they lacked the services of Ryan Kelly. However, Miami has the same excuse for its loss to Florida Gulf Coast University, and it’s one of those subjective factors that is almost impossible to judge how the Committee will treat each scenario in a given year.

Kansas and Miami each completed that double feat, sport RPIs in the top 5, and each has their share of wins over top 50 opponents as well. Each also suffered at least one horrible loss, something Duke has avoided. A couple too many in Miami’s case.

In the end it came down to Duke and Kansas in a dead heat per my model (11.19 rating apiece), so I had to make a gut decision. Kansas gets the nod with similar wins (Ohio St and Temple are shared) and the conference champion double dip.

Bubble

In a way, Mississippi winning the SEC title game and shrinking the bubble made the decision making process easier. It took them out of the at-large pool, making the bubble one spot smaller with one less legitimate option. It leaves 14 teams fighting for 6 spots, with the top 3 spots most likely grabbed by Oklahoma, St Mary’s, and Temple.

Baylor and below are likely on the wrong side, leaving the hard decision point at the final three bids among 7 teams: Middle Tennessee, Boise St, Kentucky, UVA, La Salle, Iowa, and Tennessee.

Middle Tennessee and Boise St narrowly get the first two spots, leaving the final decision among teams that had bad losses down the stretch, Kentucky and Virginia. Virginia may have had one too many bad losses and thus misses out, giving the Wildcats a new life in Dayton.

 

IN  OUT 
      43 St. Mary’s  84.49               49 Virginia  96.06
      44 Oklahoma  85.74               51 La Salle  99.03
      45 Temple  90.61               52 Iowa  99.28
      46 Middle Tennessee  94.58               53 Tennessee  101.16
      47 Boise St.  95.19               54 Baylor  109.39
      48 Kentucky  95.61               55 Southern Mississippi  112.22
                    57 Alabama  113.26
                    58 Maryland  117.12

Here’s the full top 100:

                1 Louisville  2.34     51 La Salle  99.03
                2 Indiana  4.39     52 Iowa  99.66
                3 Gonzaga  10.03     53 Tennessee  101.16
                4 Kansas  11.19     54 Baylor  109.39
                5 Duke  11.19     55 Southern Mississippi  111.84
                6 Miami FL  14.12     56 Akron  112.55
                7 Ohio St.  14.28     57 Alabama  113.26
                8 Georgetown  15.31     58 Maryland  117.12
                9 New Mexico  16.64     59 Stanford  119.05
              10 Michigan St.  16.72     60 Denver  120.85
              11 Florida  21.13     61 Bucknell  127.61
              12 Marquette  25.32     62 Valparaiso  128.11
              13 Michigan  25.49     63 Providence  128.65
              14 Syracuse  33.83     64 Arkansas  130.41
              15 Kansas St.  34.30     65 Louisiana Tech  131.66
              16 Wisconsin  34.82     66 Northern Iowa  133.76
              17 St. Louis  35.28     67 Massachusetts  134.90
              18 Oklahoma St.  40.66     68 Davidson  136.86
              19 Arizona  41.68     69 Xavier  136.95
              20 Pittsburgh  42.79     70 Washington  137.73
              21 UCLA  47.20     71 Arizona St.  138.46
              22 Notre Dame  55.63     72 Ohio  140.29
              23 North Carolina  57.37     73 Air Force  140.86
              24 Nevada Las Vegas  58.13     74 Brigham Young  143.91
              25 Creighton  59.34     75 Detroit  143.91
              26 Virginia Commonwealth  60.23     76 Stephen F. Austin  145.45
              27 Memphis  61.34     77 Florida St.  146.48
              28 North Carolina St.  64.81     78 New Mexico St.  146.70
              29 Butler  65.12     79 Saint Joseph’s  146.99
              30 Colorado St.  65.30     80 St. John’s  153.55
              31 Oregon  67.63     81 Purdue  155.63
              32 Missouri  68.32     82 Louisiana St.  156.16
              33 Minnesota  73.63     83 Stony Brook  156.40
              34 San Diego St.  75.36     84 South Dakota St.  160.40
              35 Iowa St.  75.93     85 Indiana St.  161.12
              36 Illinois  79.41     86 Southern California  161.56
              37 Cincinnati  79.50     87 Richmond  162.07
              38 Colorado  82.82     88 Charlotte  163.86
              39 California  82.84     89 Wyoming  163.89
              40 Wichita St.  83.05     90 Dayton  164.40
              41 Villanova  83.90     91 Texas A&M  165.79
              42 Mississippi  83.98     92 Texas El Paso  166.98
              43 St. Mary’s  84.11     93 Texas  168.53
              44 Oklahoma  85.74     94 North Dakota St.  169.18
              45 Temple  90.61     95 Evansville  169.90
              46 Middle Tennessee  94.21     96 Santa Clara  171.80
              47 Boise St.  95.19     97 Boston College  172.07
              48 Kentucky  95.61     98 Weber St.  174.27
              49 Virginia  96.06     99 Illinois St.  174.67
              50 Belmont  96.14    100 Rutgers  179.26

 

Bracket Update 3/15/13

•March 15, 2013 • Leave a Comment

We’re coming down to the wire with just 3 days of action left, today being the final day of at least 4 games taking place in many of the top conferences. That also means that today is the last day of widespread bubble action.

In yesterday’s bubble action, teams in the tournament field had mixed results. Illinois, Iowa State, and Oregon scored big wins that cemented their inclusion in the field.

Cincinnati, Villanova, Oklahoma, and Colorado lost games to teams safely in the field, limiting their chances to move up the S-curve. All should feel pretty good about their inclusion on Sunday, however. California suffered a bad loss to Utah, and while they should still feel pretty good about their chances, they will now have a lesser feeling of safety than they may have otherwise.

Teams just out of the tournament fared well. Tennessee and Iowa beat up on conference doormats, avoiding bad losses and surviving, giving each a chance to pick up a big quarterfinal win to bolster their chances.

Teams further off the bubble didn’t fare as well. Baylor’s late rally fell just short against Oklahoma State,  Denver and Louisiana Tech each suffered bad losses in the WAC, and Arkansas, Arizona State, and Xavier suffered losses that ended their longshot hopes of moving up the pecking order.

Here is what today has on tap:

ACC – Virginia has a nearly must-win game against NC State in the 4/5 matchup at 2:30, while Maryland clings to its hail mary attempt to make the tournament as it tries to beat Duke for the second time this season at 7.

Big Ten – The best conference in the country has 4 games that will affect the top four lines on tap in the quarterfinals, with a very intriguing Michigan/Wisconsin matchup at 2:30. Meanwhile, Iowa needs a marquee win, and will have the chance to grab it over Michigan State in the Big Ten nightcap.

Big 12 – The semifinals bring us the top 4 teams in the conference, with Kansas facing Iowa State, and Oklahoma State and Kansas State potentially playing off for a 4-seed in the other semifinal.

Big East – Two great semifinals feature three future ACC squads, as Georgetown plays Syracuse and Louisville plays Notre Dame in two games that could affect the 1-line of the s-curve.

SEC – Lots of bubble action is on tap. Kentucky must beat Vanderbilt to avoid a bad loss, while Ole Miss has one more chance to pick up a big win as it faces Missori in the late game. Finally, Tennessee and Alabama, two of the 8 teams closest to the tournament without currently being in, will face off in an elimination game at 3:30.

Pac-12 – Semifinal action pits Arizona and UCLA in one semi, while Oregon plays potential bid stealer Utah in the other semifinal.

A-10 – Quarterfinal action today pairs Butler and La Salle at 2:30, in a game the Explorers suddenly appear to need. The nightcap between bubble team Temple and longshot UMass is also desperately needed by both teams. Temple has a chance without it, while UMass may need to win the whole A-10 tournament (and definitely needs to make at least the finals) to have a shot.

MWC – The top 4 teams are in action in the semis, as New Mexico plays San Diego State and UNLV plays Colorado St

CUSA – Memphis continues their march through the league, while Southern Miss harbors slim hopes as they play UTEP in the semis.

Other semifinals include the WAC, Big Sky, SWAC, MEAC, Big West, Southland, and MAC, in 1-bid leagues.

Here is the bracket headed into today’s games:

   1 Indiana  Louisville    Duke  Gonzaga 
   2 Miami FL  Kansas    Michigan St.  Georgetown 
   3 Ohio St.  Michigan    New Mexico  Marquette 
   4 Arizona  Syracuse    Kansas St.  Florida 
   5 Oklahoma St.  Pittsburgh    Wisconsin  St. Louis 
   6 Nevada Las Vegas  Creighton    Notre Dame  UCLA 
   7 North Carolina  Memphis    Colorado St.  Virginia Commonwealth 
   8 North Carolina St.  Butler    Minnesota  Missouri 
   9 San Diego St. Iowa St.    Oregon  Illinois 
  10 Villanova  Kentucky    St. Mary’s  Cincinnati 
  11 Wichita St.  California    Colorado  Oklahoma 
  12 Akron  Belmont    La Salle/Boise St.  Temple/Virginia 
  13 Bucknell  Valparaiso    Davidson  Stephen F. Austin 
  14 Iona  Weber St.    South Dakota St.  New Mexico St. 
  15 Harvard  Florida Gulf Coast    Pacific  Vermont 
  16 Texas Southern  Long Island    James Madison  Florida International 
  16 Morgan State  Liberty       
           
  Next Four  Second Four Out       
  Middle Tennessee  Baylor       
  Mississippi  Southern Mississippi       
  Tennessee  Alabama       
  Iowa  Stanford       

And the bubble picture:

   38 St. Mary’s  81.29     49 Middle Tennessee  96.51
   39 Kentucky  82.26     50 Mississippi  96.66
   40 Villanova  82.66     52 Tennessee  97.46
   41 Wichita St.  83.94     53 Iowa  100.80
   42 California  85.47     54 Baylor  106.09
   43 Colorado  85.58     55 Southern Mississippi  116.07
   44 Oklahoma  86.32     56 Alabama  117.24
   45 Temple  86.90     57 Akron  119.71
   46 Virginia  88.24     58 Stanford  120.39
   47 Boise St.  95.65      
   48 La Salle  96.47      

As well as the teams ahead of the bubble and their relative rankings:

                1 Indiana  3.90
                2 Louisville  5.80
                3 Duke  10.82
                4 Gonzaga  13.01
                5 Georgetown  13.83
                6 Michigan St.  16.00
                7 Kansas  16.64
                8 Miami FL  18.68
                9 Ohio St.  18.72
              10 Michigan  21.88
              11 New Mexico  22.85
              12 Marquette  23.06
              13 Florida  23.53
              14 Kansas St.  35.69
              15 Syracuse  36.38
              16 Arizona  37.70
              17 Oklahoma St.  38.26
              18 Pittsburgh  41.59
              19 Wisconsin  45.13
              20 St. Louis  46.40
              21 UCLA  48.74
              22 Notre Dame  56.20
              23 Creighton  59.03
              24 Nevada Las Vegas  62.21
              25 North Carolina  62.83
              26 Memphis  63.84
              27 Colorado St.  63.86
              28 Virginia Commonwealth  65.33
              29 Missouri  65.87
              30 Minnesota  66.64
              31 Butler  66.79
              32 North Carolina St.  70.01
              33 San Diego St.  72.76
              34 Iowa St.  76.53
              35 Oregon  79.20
              36 Illinois  80.81
              37 Cincinnati  81.07

 

Best in Class – March 14

•March 15, 2013 • Leave a Comment

Here’s a look at the contenders for the #1 seeds (all rankings taken from my model unless otherwise specificed).

#1 – Indiana (RPI: 5, BPI:3, Sagarin: 3, Kenpom: 2)

Big Wins: #5 Georgetown (neutral), #6 Michigan St. (x2), #10 Michigan (x2), #9 Ohio St (split – away win), #25 UNC (home), #26 Minnesota (split – home), #53 Iowa (x2)

Bad Losses: None

As sole champions of the best league, with 6 wins over the top 10 (including 3 road and one neutral), 2 more over #25/26, Indiana has a 1-seed resume that will draw little argument.

#2 – Louisville (RPI/Kenpom: 3, Sagarin/BPI: 1)

Big Wins: #11 Marquette (home), #16 Pitt (home), #17 Syracuse (split – win away), #24 Notre Dame (split), #27 Memphis (away), #31 Missouri (neutral), #38 Kentucky (home), #40 Villanova (neutral)

Bad Losses: None

Louisville has the best combined computer rankings of anyone, ranking no worse than 3rd, and shared the Big East title. Their 4 top 25 wins and 3 additional top 50 are strong, but not on the level of Indiana or Duke.

#3 – Duke (RPI:1, BPI:2, Sagarin:4, Kenpom:5)

Big Wins: #2 Louisville (neutral), #8 Miami (split), #9 Ohio St (home), #25 North Carolina (x2), #26 Minnesota (neutral), #29 VCU (neutral), #32 NC St (split), #38 Kentucky (neutral), #46 Temple (neutral)

Bad Losses: None

Duke never lost with Ryan Kelly this season, and he’s back. 3 top 10 wins. 4 more against the top 30. And three more against the top 50. This is the best resume when combining computer rankings and wins. Lone blemish is finishing second in the ACC.

#4 – Gonzaga (Kenpom: 4, BPI/Sagarin: 5, RPI: 6, AP/Coaches Poll: #1)

Big Wins: #14 Kansas St (semi-home), #15 Oklahoma St (away), #36 Saint Mary’s (x3), #37 Oklahoma (neutral), #56 Baylor (home)

Bad Losses: None

Gonzaga won the WCC without being challenged, which helps and doesn’t help. From their wins above, they won a de facto Big 12 title as well. While polls mean little to seeding, #1 with only 2 losses has to help their chances. The lack of opportunities to grab a big win in league play will be their biggest hurdle, but they have passed the all important “eye-test” (which isn’t picked up by my model) and appear to be headed for the rarified air of the top line in the West Regional out of the WCC.

#5 – Georgetown (RPI: 10, Sagarin: 11, Kenpom: 13, BPI: 17)

Big Wins: #2 Louisville (home), #11 Marquette (home), #17 Syracuse (x2), #20 UCLA (neutral), #24 Notre Dame (away), #35 Cincy (x2, away/neutral), Connecticut (#39 if eligible, away), #52 Tennessee (neutral)

Bad Losses: #130 South Florida

Georgetown won a share of the Big East with Louisville and holds the #1 seed in the Big East. They suffered an overtime loss to Indiana early, which certainly won’t hurt. 6 top 25 wins, including 2 road and 1 neutral site win looks great as well. And the head-to-head win over Louisville could prove decisive.  The downsides for Georgetown: 1) the loss to USF stands out as the worst loss among this top 5; and 2) Georgetown’s computer numbers are worse across the board, largely due to a weak non-conference schedule that included 3 strong opponents (Indiana, UCLA, and Tennesee) and a bunch of cream puffs. Without winning the Big East tournament, that could prohibit Georgetown from earning a #1 seed.

#6 – Michigan State (Sagarin: 8, RPI/Kenpom: 9, BPI: 10)

Big Wins: #7 Kansas (neutral), #9 Ohio St (split), #10 Michigan (split), , #18 Wisconsin (x2), #26 Minnesota (split), #42 Illinois (home), #48 Boise St (home), #53 Iowa (away)

Bad Losses: None

Michigan St grabbed the 2-seed in the Big Ten on the heels of a 13-5 conference record. 3 wins over the top 10, plus 6 more over teams within 4 spots of the tournament look great as well. The downsides: The computer numbers yell 2-seed rather than 1, and 1 top-50 road win, over Wisconsin, is less than everyone ahead of them except Duke, who also had five neutral site wins among that group.

#7 Kansas (Sagarin: 6, BPI: 7, RPI/Kenpom: 8)

Big Wins: #9 Ohio St (away), #14 Kansas St (x2), #15 Oklahoma St (split – away), #21 St. Louis (home), #40 Iowa St (x2), #42 Colorado (home), #46 Temple (home), #50 Belmont (home)

Horrifying Loss: #217 TCU

Kansas has strong and consistent computer rankings, beat 3 top 15 teams on the road, grabbed 2 more top 25 wins at home, and 5 additional top 50 wins, to total 10, tied for the most of anyone. The one befuddling loss to TCU hurt the computer numbers and raises a few eyebrows, as does the shellacking at Baylor with an outright Big 12 title on the line. While their Big 12 seed wasn’t affected by the Baylor loss, their NCAA seed very well was.

Miami and Michigan are the two other outside contenders for a #1 seed, although neither is likely to land one at this point. I’ll profile them if the domino effect of items takes place that would garner them consideration.

Bracket Update 3/13/13

•March 13, 2013 • Leave a Comment

In Wednesday’s early action, Providence and Stanford let their slim remaining hopes of playing in the Big Dance disappear with losses in the Big East and Pac-12 tournament. Boise St hopes it fairs better tonight in a must-win against MWC rival San Diego State.

Here is a bracket update before this evening’s games, with tomorrow full of meaningful contests, including over half the bubble in action.

   1 Indiana  Louisville    Duke  Gonzaga 
   2 Miami FL  Kansas    Michigan St.  Georgetown 
   3 Ohio St.  Michigan    Marquette  Florida 
   4 Pittsburgh  Oklahoma St.    Kansas St.  New Mexico 
   5 Syracuse  Arizona    Wisconsin  UCLA 
   6 Notre Dame  Colorado St.    Creighton  St. Louis 
   7 North Carolina  Minnesota    Memphis  Nevada Las Vegas 
   8 Butler  North Carolina St.    Missouri  Virginia Commonwealth 
   9 San Diego St. Cincinnati    St. Mary’s  California 
  10 Iowa St.  Oregon    Kentucky  Oklahoma 
  11 Wichita St.  Colorado    Illinois  Villanova 
  12 Akron  Belmont    MTSU/Boise St.  Temple/Virginia 
  13 Bucknell  Valparaiso    Louisiana Tech  Davidson 
  14 Iona  Weber St.    South Dakota St.  Stephen F. Austin 
  15 Harvard  Florida Gulf Coast    Pacific  Vermont 
  16 Long Island  James Madison    Florida International  NC Central 
  16 Texas Southern  Liberty       
           
  Next Four  Second Four Out    Four More   
  Mississippi  Baylor    Alabama   
  Tennessee  Denver    Arkansas   
  La Salle  Southern Mississippi    Providence   
  Iowa  Stanford    Maryland   
           
   34 Cincinnati  80.06     49 Mississippi  97.05
   35 St. Mary’s  80.26     50 Belmont  97.62
   36 California  80.84     51 Tennessee  98.78
   37 Oklahoma  82.68     52 La Salle  99.13
   38 Kentucky  82.74     53 Iowa  102.58
   39 Oregon  82.80     54 Baylor  107.45
   40 Iowa St.  83.12     55 Denver  112.51
   41 Wichita St.  83.51     56 Southern Mississippi  115.90
   42 Colorado  84.33     57 Stanford  116.29
   43 Illinois  85.91     58 Alabama  117.68
   44 Villanova  86.40     59 Akron  119.90
   45 Temple  88.56     60 Louisiana Tech  123.53
   46 Virginia  89.19     61 Arkansas  124.03
   47 Boise St.  92.48     62 Providence  124.08
   48 Middle Tennessee  95.56     63 Bucknell  127.74
          64 Valparaiso  130.03
          65 Maryland  134.39

Bracket Update 3/13/13

•March 13, 2013 • Leave a Comment

The weekend brought us the first 5 bids, plus eliminated two more #1 seeds in ongoing tournaments. It also brought a bit of clarity to the #1 seeds, or at least the first two of them. Indiana and Duke appear poised to grab #1 seeds in the Big Dance, with 8 other teams fighting for the remaining two spots.

The five in the field right now are as follows:

Creighton (#28, projected 7/8 seed), Belmont (#52, projected 12-seed), Harvard (#101, 14/15), Florida Gulf Coast (#119, 15), and Liberty (#276, play-in 16 seed).

Middle Tennessee’s loss in the Sun Belt semis has either knocked the Blue Raiders out of the tournament or shrunk the bubble by 1 team. The team that currently feels the brunt of that loss: Tennessee, who is now the first team out.

   1 Indiana  Louisville    Duke  Georgetown 
   2 Miami FL  Gonzaga    Kansas  Michigan St. 
   3 Michigan  Ohio St.    Florida  Marquette 
   4 Syracuse  Oklahoma St.    Kansas St.  New Mexico 
   5 Pittsburgh  Arizona    Wisconsin  UCLA 
   6 Colorado St.  North Carolina    Notre Dame  St. Louis 
   7 Nevada Las Vegas  Minnesota    Memphis  Creighton 
   8 Butler  North Carolina St.    Missouri  Virginia Commonwealth 
   9 St. Mary’s San Diego St.    Oregon  California 
  10 Wichita St.  Illinois    Cincinnati  Oklahoma 
  11 Iowa St.  Colorado    Kentucky  Villanova 
  12 Akron  Belmont    Temple/Virginia  MTSU/Boise St. 
  13 Bucknell  Valparaiso    Louisiana Tech  Davidson 
  14 Iona  South Dakota St.    Weber St.  Stephen F. Austin 
  15 Harvard  Pacific    Florida Gulf Coast  Vermont 
  16 Mount St. Mary’s  Northeastern    Arkansas St.  NC Central 
  16 Texas Southern  Liberty       
           
  Next Four  Second Four Out    Four More   
  Tennessee  Baylor    Alabama   
  Mississippi  Denver    Arkansas   
  La Salle  Stanford    Providence   
  Iowa  Southern Mississippi    Air Force   

Here is the bubble, with teams making the cut on the left, and those falling just short in the absence of an automatic bid (Belmont) on the right. San Diego St through Illinois should feel pretty safe, but a horrid loss coupled with an injury and a shrinking of the bubble could conceivably put them at risk.

   34 San Diego St.  79.48  49 Tennessee  98.48
   35 Oregon  81.04  50 Mississippi  98.66
   36 California  81.93  51 La Salle  99.74
   37 Oklahoma  82.35  52 Belmont  102.41
   38 Cincinnati  83.61  53 Iowa  104.90
   39 Illinois  84.27  54 Baylor  108.93
   40 Wichita St.  84.56  55 Denver  114.25
   41 Iowa St.  84.59  56 Stanford  116.06
   42 Colorado  84.83  57 Southern Mississippi  116.46
   43 Kentucky  85.18  58 Alabama  117.18
   44 Villanova  86.76  59 Akron  117.85
   45 Middle Tennessee  90.14  60 Louisiana Tech  117.87
   46 Boise St.  92.52  61 Arkansas  124.18
   47 Virginia  92.65  62 Providence  124.69
   48 Temple  94.02  63 Bucknell  127.45
       64 Valparaiso  130.63
       65 Air Force  135.04
       66 Northern Iowa  135.37
       67 Xavier  135.77
       68 Maryland  136.26
       69 Washington  139.45
       70 Massachusetts  141.13

Bracket Update 3/10/13

•March 13, 2013 • Leave a Comment

The weekend brought us the first 5 bids, plus eliminated two more #1 seeds in ongoing tournaments. It also brought a bit of clarity to the #1 seeds, or at least the first two of them. Indiana and Duke appear poised to grab #1 seeds in the Big Dance, with 8 other teams fighting for the remaining two spots.

The five in the field right now are as follows:

Creighton (#28, projected 7/8 seed), Belmont (#52, projected 12-seed), Harvard (#101, 14/15), Florida Gulf Coast (#119, 15), and Liberty (#276, play-in 16 seed).

Middle Tennessee’s loss in the Sun Belt semis has either knocked the Blue Raiders out of the tournament or shrunk the bubble by 1 team. The team that currently feels the brunt of that loss: Tennessee, who is now the first team out.

   1 Indiana  Louisville    Duke  Georgetown 
   2 Miami FL  Gonzaga    Kansas  Michigan St. 
   3 Michigan  Ohio St.    Florida  Marquette 
   4 Syracuse  Oklahoma St.    Kansas St.  New Mexico 
   5 Pittsburgh  Arizona    Wisconsin  UCLA 
   6 Colorado St.  North Carolina    Notre Dame  St. Louis 
   7 Nevada Las Vegas  Minnesota    Memphis  Creighton 
   8 Butler  North Carolina St.    Missouri  Virginia Commonwealth 
   9 St. Mary’s San Diego St.    Oregon  California 
  10 Wichita St.  Illinois    Cincinnati  Oklahoma 
  11 Iowa St.  Colorado    Kentucky  Villanova 
  12 Akron  Belmont    Temple/Virginia  MTSU/Boise St. 
  13 Bucknell  Valparaiso    Louisiana Tech  Davidson 
  14 Iona  South Dakota St.    Weber St.  Stephen F. Austin 
  15 Harvard  Pacific    Florida Gulf Coast  Vermont 
  16 Mount St. Mary’s  Northeastern    Arkansas St.  NC Central 
  16 Texas Southern  Liberty       
           
  Next Four  Second Four Out    Four More   
  Tennessee  Baylor    Alabama   
  Mississippi  Denver    Arkansas   
  La Salle  Stanford    Providence   
  Iowa  Southern Mississippi    Air Force   

Here is the bubble, with teams making the cut on the left, and those falling just short in the absence of an automatic bid (Belmont) on the right. San Diego St through Illinois should feel pretty safe, but a horrid loss coupled with an injury and a shrinking of the bubble could conceivably put them at risk.

   34 San Diego St.  79.48  49 Tennessee  98.48
   35 Oregon  81.04  50 Mississippi  98.66
   36 California  81.93  51 La Salle  99.74
   37 Oklahoma  82.35  52 Belmont  102.41
   38 Cincinnati  83.61  53 Iowa  104.90
   39 Illinois  84.27  54 Baylor  108.93
   40 Wichita St.  84.56  55 Denver  114.25
   41 Iowa St.  84.59  56 Stanford  116.06
   42 Colorado  84.83  57 Southern Mississippi  116.46
   43 Kentucky  85.18  58 Alabama  117.18
   44 Villanova  86.76  59 Akron  117.85
   45 Middle Tennessee  90.14  60 Louisiana Tech  117.87
   46 Boise St.  92.52  61 Arkansas  124.18
   47 Virginia  92.65  62 Providence  124.69
   48 Temple  94.02  63 Bucknell  127.45
       64 Valparaiso  130.63
       65 Air Force  135.04
       66 Northern Iowa  135.37
       67 Xavier  135.77
       68 Maryland  136.26
       69 Washington  139.45
       70 Massachusetts  141.13