NCAA Tournament Final Projection

•March 13, 2022 • Leave a Comment

A wild final week for teams on the bubble (not a happy one for this Demon Deacon fan) saw as many teams as I can remember improving their resume over the season’s final week. Those who lost early had nothing to do but watch as other teams passed them by the hour. Richmond stealing a bid from Davidson was the final straw for a number of team’s hopes — with 7 teams of a quality that could have gotten in during weaker seasons left on the outside. Which 7 those will be could prove to be hotly contested after the fact. My guess is the average bracketologist (myself included!) will miss more teams than normal this year. Here’s to hoping I miss less than the rest.

I’m a veteran forecaster but this is my first bracket since 2017 — and I haven’t done one since the NET replaced RPI as the de facto metric of choice. My old model was rendered somewhat moot and I’ve had to simplify and adjust on the fly this year. That said, I’m largely happy with the results of my tweaked quantitative starting point. Of my field, only 3 at-large bids come from outside the top 47 teams, and thus 3 of those 47 from a strictly quantitative starting point that doesn’t include records or assessment of quality of wins will miss my field.

The unlucky 3: Oklahoma (41), SMU (44), Wake Forest (45). 15 losses will likely dog Oklahoma. SMU and Wake have better records and largely played like teams good enough to dance, but may not have racked up enough quality wins if they do indeed fall short.

The lucky 3 that take their place: Creighton (48), Miami (49), and Rutgers (63). The first two seemed to win enough games against good opponents all year, and especially late in Creighton’s case. Miami completing the OT win against BC in the ACCT could be all that separates them from suffering the same fate as Wake Forest. Rutgers has the strangest resume in recent memory, a lot of bad early losses, metrics that aren’t indicative of a team close to the bubble (in a bad way), but wins against 7 of the top 8 in the Big Ten, which includes 4 wins over likely 3-5 seeds. The wins look like those of a 3-4 seed — and ultimately push me over the top in selecting them despite the metrics.

Here’s the final projection:

NCAA Tournament, Saturday 3.12 late evening

•March 13, 2022 • Leave a Comment

Likely my second to last update — the final one will come an hour or two prior to the Selection Sunday broadcast.

Read as S-Curve; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid; Italic = Auto Bid Placeholder

NCAA Tournament, Saturday 3.12, afternoon

•March 12, 2022 • Leave a Comment
Read as S-Curve; Italics = Auto Bid Placeholder; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid

NCAA Tournament, Friday March 11 am Update

•March 11, 2022 • Leave a Comment

Read as S-Curve; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid; Italic = Placeholder for Auto Bid

NCAA Tournament, Wed March 9 am

•March 9, 2022 • Leave a Comment

11 Conference Champions crowned, 21 to go. Yesterday had 2 strange ones on campus plus a last second win in the Horizon.

  • Bellarmine wins the ASUN on its home floor…sending Jacksonville St to the dance. Bellarmine just came up from D2 and are ineligible due to an antiquated transition period rule.
  • Bryant qualified for its first tournament with a home court thumping of Wagner. This one featured a brawl between the Bryant student section and Wagner families/supporters that paused the game for over 30 minutes before the celebration could begin again.
  • Wright St with a more classic 1 point win over Northern Kentucky to get the Horizon crown.

Busy schedule today with the ACC 2nd round and a large number of other conferences kicking off. Go Deacs!

Read as S-Curve; Bold = Clinched Auto-Bid; Italics = Auto-Bid Placeholder

NCAA Tournament Bracket 3/8 am

•March 8, 2022 • Leave a Comment

Quiet night last night and fairly low impact of games today as the schedule gets busier. Things pick up as the week goes on with Thursday probably the most impactful day of the season for tournament hopefuls, with pretty much all the bubble teams in action.

Read as S-Curve; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid; Italic = Placeholder for Auto Bid;

Bracket Update – March 7

•March 7, 2022 • Leave a Comment

NCAA Tournament Update, March 6 early am Edition

•March 6, 2022 • Leave a Comment

NCAA Bubble Watch – March Madness Field Prediction

•March 4, 2022 • Leave a Comment

After a solid 2017 showing, I’ve been away the last 5 years. With my enthusiasm for College Basketball back this season (thank you Steve Forbes), and my attempts to look at the potential tournament field back to borderline obsessive over the last month, I figured I may as well post my field and compete in the Bracket Project again this year. Hopefully the shift from RPI to Net as a focal point helps rather than hurts my accuracy.

With that, here’s my field as it stands today:

FINAL Version – NCAA Bracket Projection

•March 12, 2017 • Leave a Comment

Here’s the final bracket with one contingency: if Cincy comes back to beat SMU, switch them. Both Michigan and Wisconsin are 6s, so no change stemming from that game.

   1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga North Carolina
   2 Oregon Duke Arizona Kentucky
   3 Louisville Baylor UCLA Florida St.
   4 Florida Butler Purdue West Virginia
   5 Iowa St. Virginia Notre Dame SMU
   6 Minnesota Michigan Wisconsin Cincinnati
   7 Creighton Saint Mary’s Maryland Wichita St.
   8 Arkansas Oklahoma St. Dayton Miami FL
   9 Virginia Tech Seton Hall Vanderbilt Northwestern
  10 Michigan St. Wake Forest South Carolina Marquette
  11 Kansas St. VCU/Xavier Providence/USC Rhode Island
  12 Princeton UNC Wilmington Middle Tennessee Nevada
  13 Vermont East Tennessee St. Bucknell New Mexico St.
  14 Northern Kentucky Iona Florida Gulf Coast Winthrop
  15 Kent St. Troy Texas Southern North Dakota
  16 South Dakota St. New Orleans NC Central Jacksonville St.
  16 Mount St. Mary’s UC Davis
Last Four In First Four Out Second Four Out Four More
VCU Syracuse Indiana Illinois
Xavier Illinois St. Iowa Georgia
Providence TCU Houston Alabama
USC Clemson California Utah
   33 Virginia Tech 89.04     48 Syracuse 118.81
   34 Seton Hall 92.97     49 Illinois St. 122.25
   35 Vanderbilt 93.96     50 Nevada 124.13
   36 Northwestern 94.04     51 UNC Wilmington 125.29
   37 Marquette 95.08     52 TCU 126.29
   38 South Carolina 95.82     53 Princeton 132.15
   39 Wake Forest 97.76     54 Clemson 132.53
   40 Michigan St. 100.60     55 Indiana 132.68
   41 Kansas St. 100.69    56 Vermont 132.98
   42 VCU 101.86    57 Iowa 133.09
   43 Xavier 102.11    58 Houston 133.48
   44 Rhode Island 102.61     59 California 134.29
   45 Providence 108.17    60 Illinois 136.18
   46 Middle Tennessee 111.65     61 Georgia 137.44
   47 USC 117.70     62 Alabama 140.30
    63 Utah 142.76