NCAA Tournament Projection – FINAL

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NCAA Tournament Projection, Saturday 3/11

NCAA Tournament Field, Friday March 10

NCAA Tournament Field, Wed March 8, 2023

NCAA Tournament Field – March 6, 2023

NCAA Tournament Field, March 3, 2023

10 days until Selection Sunday! It’s long past time.

NCAA Tournament Final Projection

A wild final week for teams on the bubble (not a happy one for this Demon Deacon fan) saw as many teams as I can remember improving their resume over the season’s final week. Those who lost early had nothing to do but watch as other teams passed them by the hour. Richmond stealing a bid from Davidson was the final straw for a number of team’s hopes — with 7 teams of a quality that could have gotten in during weaker seasons left on the outside. Which 7 those will be could prove to be hotly contested after the fact. My guess is the average bracketologist (myself included!) will miss more teams than normal this year. Here’s to hoping I miss less than the rest.

I’m a veteran forecaster but this is my first bracket since 2017 — and I haven’t done one since the NET replaced RPI as the de facto metric of choice. My old model was rendered somewhat moot and I’ve had to simplify and adjust on the fly this year. That said, I’m largely happy with the results of my tweaked quantitative starting point. Of my field, only 3 at-large bids come from outside the top 47 teams, and thus 3 of those 47 from a strictly quantitative starting point that doesn’t include records or assessment of quality of wins will miss my field.

The unlucky 3: Oklahoma (41), SMU (44), Wake Forest (45). 15 losses will likely dog Oklahoma. SMU and Wake have better records and largely played like teams good enough to dance, but may not have racked up enough quality wins if they do indeed fall short.

The lucky 3 that take their place: Creighton (48), Miami (49), and Rutgers (63). The first two seemed to win enough games against good opponents all year, and especially late in Creighton’s case. Miami completing the OT win against BC in the ACCT could be all that separates them from suffering the same fate as Wake Forest. Rutgers has the strangest resume in recent memory, a lot of bad early losses, metrics that aren’t indicative of a team close to the bubble (in a bad way), but wins against 7 of the top 8 in the Big Ten, which includes 4 wins over likely 3-5 seeds. The wins look like those of a 3-4 seed — and ultimately push me over the top in selecting them despite the metrics.

Here’s the final projection:

NCAA Tournament, Saturday 3.12 late evening

Likely my second to last update — the final one will come an hour or two prior to the Selection Sunday broadcast.

Read as S-Curve; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid; Italic = Auto Bid Placeholder

NCAA Tournament, Saturday 3.12, afternoon

Read as S-Curve; Italics = Auto Bid Placeholder; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid

NCAA Tournament, Friday March 11 am Update

Read as S-Curve; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid; Italic = Placeholder for Auto Bid