NCAA Tournament – FINAL Bracket Projection

First, the bracket itself.

Where am I most likely to be wrong:

• 1-line — I actually had Iowa St surpassing UNC on most metrics in the final day — but I’m skeptical that it wasn’t too late for the committee to make changes given the number of other things on their plate with bid stealers — plus UNC AD Bubba Cunningham on the committee. So UNC it is.
• 3/4 — Auburn has all the efficiency metrics of a top 4/5 team in the country, with only one of their wins by single digits. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that. They also won the SEC today. On the flip side, their resume is sorely lacking. End of the day, I moved them above Duke and an injured Kansas for the final 3.
• 6 line down — I have no idea how the MWC will be viewed — as a conference and in what order. I’ll assume 5 bids, with Colorado St hurt by the shrinking bubble.
• I don’t love the resumes of teams on the 8 line on down, but I think the whole package is better than the teams that missed out. With the shrinking bubble, I wouldn’t be shocked if Mississippi St on through my Dayton play-in teams miss. I think everyone through Wazzou is safe.
• Bubble: this gets really hard. I’ll assume St John’s, Virginia, and Colorado St are the three teams that missed out from yesterday’s 3 stolen bids (Pac-12, ACC, AAC).
• From my ratings, I usually take 2-4 teams up from outside my quantitative starting point into the field, replacing a handful of others. This year…I’m doing that with just two: final four team FAU likely gets the benefit of the doubt and replaces a Providence team they were already really close to in my rankings. And Seton Hall’s resume stands out over St John’s despite better metrics.

~ by gremazares on March 17, 2024.